Carmack says it is 'likely' Sony will launch new console first
- Posted August 11th, 2009 at 16:33 EDT by Mike Harradence
- 8,151 views
- 70 Comments
Id Software technical director John Carmack reckons that Sony will be the first console manufacturer to make the transition to the next generation of gaming platforms, though noted he doesn't expect any announcements to be made on the subject anytime soon.
Speaking to CD-Action, Carmack observed that Sony may want to launch its successor to the PlayStation 3 first in order to prevent a similar scenario to the current hardware cycle, where Microsoft gained the upper hand by releasing Xbox 360 a full year ahead of the competition.
“The whole jockeying for who's going to release the first next-gen console is very interesting and pretty divorced from the technical side of things,” he said, adding, “Whether Sony wants to jump the gun to prevent the same sort of 360 lag from happening to them again seems likely.”
“As developers, we would really like to see this generation stretch as long as possible. We'd like to see it be quite a few more years before the next-gen consoles comes out, but I suspect one will end up shipping something earlier rather than later.”
He also stated his belief that at least one next-gen machine would ship without the capacity for optimal media.
“I think that Xbox Live and the advent of that and the App Store with the iPhone are wonderful signs of the future of digital distribution,” said Carmack.
“I think there's a decent chance that one of the next-gen consoles will be without optical media. The uptake rates of people who have broadband connects surprised everyone this generation. It's higher than what the core publishers and even the first party people expected.”
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LegendaryAim |
LegendaryAim- 4:55pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 5
@4 How so? Sony's 10 year plan refers to the support we saw the PS1 and PS2 receive. I actually think Sony will do this. I also think they will launch a more cost-effective console that will sell at a minimum lost. H ell might even break even when it launches.
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incredibilistic
- 4:56pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 6
Sony doesn't need a new console or needs to come out with a new console first. Microsoft has shown that you don't need a brand new console to breathe new life into a system. With the NXE and Natal coming up they've reinvented the concept of the 360.
Their online service is better, they're getting more social networking abilities that will draw more non-conventional users to power up their 360 and with on-demand games and movies they're making inroads to becoming the true "set-top-box" console that everyone's been talking about for well over a decade.
I hate to sound like a cheerleader for the competition but the fact is that Microsoft is leading the market the stuff they have available with Sony lagging behind. Even if Sony releases a new console there's NO WAY they'll have a device without a Blu-ray drive. That's basically pissing away all the work they put into making the format a standard only to suggest that it's not needed with a model that doesn't have a physical media drive.
Microsoft, on the other hand, I can see them releasing a system with no drive offering a USB connected DVD drive to play old 360 titles while everything else is DLC only. They'll also make the drive easier to upgrade or offer a 1TB or 2TB model. If that happens the PS3, PS4 and Blu-ray will look archaic by comparison.
I think it's time Sony and Apple merge. Otherwise I think Sony's Playstation days are numbered.
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Byuu |
Midget- 4:57pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 7
The PS3 will be around for a little while longer yet, considering now devs are getting used to the platform and are actually creating games for it i don't think sony would upset their new found creativity in the next few years by saying "screw our 10 year plan here is the PS4 with only slightly updated graphics and new CPU which you'll have to learn all over again...."
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LastManDancing
- 5:09pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 9
Like said earlier, with the 360 being reinvented with NATAL and NXE Sony releasing a new console first seems plausible. But I think the earliest we would hear anything would be 2011.
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GunTeng
- 5:10pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 10
He has a point about beating each other for 1st console release, but all developers competing against each other have to ensure they have a balance between competing & delivering for the consumer...meaning they can't afford to release too early (consumers & developers will not be ready for it).
The point about the 10 year life cycle for a SONY console will not likely change regardless when they release a new console. It is something that is dependable & provides some insurance to developers & consumers alike.
The other point about digital media....well, it won't be a SONY product. Having digital distrubution only will seriously limit the consumer base. AAA Games are just too large for digital distubution and will be even after the new console releases, especially considering the BB capabilities in most countries, the cost of such BB and the remote chance that it will improve cheaply by that date.
I personally think he is completely wrong about Digital Distrubution & is getting his ideals in the way of practical ability. Even so, there will be an overlap time where AAA games are available on both formats. So taking that into account, DD only consoles will not happen next gen, and if they do will limit only their own sales (IMO).
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biron_w
- 5:29pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 12
It's entirelypossible the DD will play a big part next gen but I can't see any company getting rid of any type of physical media completely.They would simply lose money as not every country and everybody has decent enough internet to make downloading games worthwhile.
My guess is next gen you will see a steam like system for consoles so people can download new games if they want to.
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Decode1976
- 5:30pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 13
Yeah, that isn't happening BUT remarks like this will only push PS3 further into 3rd place. An entire group of potential buyers will now think there is no point to pick up a PS3 if a PS4 is right around the corner.
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XERPENT |
XERPENT- 5:35pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 14
late again psu
also, i dont think there will be much hardware in sony's 4th gen, there will be more software and on demand gaming services like onlive and some futuristic stuff like voice recognition, something a size of a cd box with the PS logo and an ethernet cable, power and tv connectivity socket. the rest will be done online, like i said, on demand gaming
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Xion9
- 5:39pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 15
I like to have a pile of games to show off. So what happens when you want to rent a game you pay for it then you wait for forever for it to dl, No thanks. Some of us like to bring our games to a friends does that mean you have to bring your system or your hd everywehre?
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Syphon_Filter |
Syphon_filter2- 5:43pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 16
Old news. Since 2007, Sony SCEJ has been working on new hardware that supports fully 3D graphics and etc.
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XERPENT |
XERPENT- 5:50pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 17
@10
it will be like a live stream dude, u just select the thing, it wont be downloaded but will be played on the company's servers, making it lagfree and if u wanna replay something, u just go and select that level from the server, the graphics, decoding and everything will work on the company's servers so theres no stress on ur system, its just like playing a live stream like i said, like a live movie, but that u r playing it practically but not literally (like theres no disc or anything present at your side) maybe theres a service that lets u play unlimited (or set by the owners of the game) games for an amount of money, like $20 a month for unlimited games.
for example nowadays its like this:
friend [A]: yo come join me in m.a.g
friend [B]: oh no man i dont have a copy
FUTURE PS4:
friend[A]:yo join me in call of duty 10: future warfare
friend[B]:no prob man, with this live stream gaming, i can just come in without ANY hassle
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HalfOfZero |
HalfOfZero- 5:52pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 18
Someone has already mentioned it here, Sony and Apple HAVE to make some sort of joint force, otherwise, and I hate to sound cliche/cheesey/overlydramatic, Microsoft will get their wicked way and rule zee entire earth, and maybe even enslave us all..
Then you'll all wish you used itunes once in a while :P
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lurkingshadow89 |
DEATH555666- 6:13pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 19
HaHaHaHa A He a HAA A He ha he ho and i thought my jokes where bad.......?
Listen sony is way ahead of the graphics and cpu and processing power ofthe xbox which means the xbox is needing to show something new first, but hey your funny. Does Microsoft look like a company with a plain they just... Do Things..... They are like a dog chasing cars.... They wouldn't know what to do with one if they cuaght it.
PS3 is here and its now. U want the best u need to get the Best Nough said.
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michaelcorleone
- 6:53pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 22
what about if most ppl haven't got BB or your BB goes down? this CLOUD or ONLIVE whatever it is hasn't got a chance of workin until about 2015 because not EVERYBODY has BB and BB at the minute is nowhere near fast enough to support something so demanding.
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Dassureth
- 6:55pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 23
Wow, what, i was expecting this guy to be totally trashed.
arguments:
1. The 360's potential is tapped, to make any of their games better, they have to be released on multiple discs. MS needs to be the next one to release a console for gaming to progress with them, if they do not, then games will very quickly begin to abandon or see microsoft the way they are and give them second rate games.
2. Someone arguing that the next Xbox will be all DLC. If MS does this it will be a huge mistake. Internet Bandwidth is not moving as fast as technology, I don't care if you have 2TB of harddrive space, downloading a 40gb game take's waaayy too long. The only way around this is if they have it setup in chapters where you download parts of the game at a time. Another reason DLC won't happen is because... Not everyone has access to highspeed internet, and highspeed in some places are just slightly bit faster than dialup. Won't happen, MS isn't that stupid, I don't think anyway.
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gabbyps3
- 7:00pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 24
@6 are you seriously talking bout project natal? that (project natal) is old news, ps2 had something similar to that you guys remember the eyetoy? same concept, natal does nothing new for the 360 and i highly doubt sony's days are numbered, 360 was out for a whole year before ps3 and ps3 is only like 5 million units behind it. all i'm saying is dont count on ps3 reaching it's "final days".
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chilledbreeze7
- 7:22pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 27
hummmmm cant see it myself, especially when Sony say they want the PS3 to last 10 years or something. I hate to say it, but I reckon Microsoft will beat them to it again.
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Kostchtchie
- 7:35pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 28
oh shut up carmack.. sony is few million consoles behind microsofts failed console that should got pulled from the market if trading standards had done there job right , and you spout crap like sony are lagging behind i guess xbox is in bad way as nintendo beat both consoles for sales yeah? all i see is another buIIshlt developer supporting a company that ripped and rips millions of gamers off, great work carmack your flng hero, thanks for your input carmack
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Triple Dk |
TripleDk- 8:00pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 29
How the future will be:
By 2010 Wii sales will be in a big decline compared to earlier years. Therefore Nintendo will announce the Wii 2 (or Wii HD, whatever) in 2011, with a release in 2011-2012 (possible delay into 2013).
Sony will then be second with the new console which will be announced in 2013, and released in 2014, if everything goes by the plan.
MS is a lot more unpredictable because of Natal. If it completely flops, they will try to rush out their next console somewhere between 2012-13, but if it is succesfull and "reinvents" the 360, they will not release a new console before late 2014/early 2015.
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Sacchi |
Sacchi__uy- 8:23pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 31
I doubt it a lot. The PS3 is gonna be here for a long time, while the 360 is already at its limit. We'll definitely be seeing a new 360 with Natal and perhaps some more stuff when it comes to the Xbox Live, but the new console of the next generation will definitely not be the succesor to the PS3.
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masonmcglasson
- 8:46pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 32
On the subject of digital downloads can anyone explain to me how current PSN downloads work. For example I have over 35 arcade games downloaded but I heard you can only download them 5 times on 5 different "active" consoles. Does that mean if I buy lets say Fat Princess I can give it to 4 other friends (Well I know that does, but...) Lets say my PS3 breaks and I get a new one. 4 of my friends downloaded it and my old PS3 so that takes up 5/5. Now I would have to re-buy the game correct? Or can I deactivate the system and remove the download from the hard drive and re-download it again for free?
As long as I'm guaranteed to own the game that I buy and download for the rest of my life, I will be all for it. Downloading games huge games like MGS 4 would suck... Unless they let us start the download days before it's released (so that yes we can download it completely but play it on the day of release).
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markwesker
- 8:52pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 33
@6 better online service,dont post plane lies or aint u seen the hordes of abuse people get on there,look at any 360 fan site and there number one reason for getting a ps3 is because of the trolls that use xbox live...ps3 has better online, 360 just has a little extra feature which u mugs pay for.
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Gdi939393
- 8:54pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 35
...My Opinion is that Sony is going to release the first Next Gen consoles for These reason:
1)Blu ray is Cheper,and in 2 years will get cheaper,and will be able to hold up to 250Gb ,This means sony wont have to invest in a new optical Drive the thing that made Ps2 Expensive at lunch(the transaction from cd to dvd)and the ps3 (dvd to Blu ray)
2)The cell processor Will only be updated With more spu's ,which will make it easier for them than just,build and invest in a whole new proceessor
3)Developers by that time will get used to Cell
Imo,Ps3 was Just paving the path for Nex Gen..(just my opinion)
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MarkG999
- 9:30pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 40
What an idiot Carmack is. History has told us, Sony don't get rushed into anything, things are ready when they are ready.
They could have rushed out the PS3 feature incomplete and broken like Microsoft did, but they didn't want to. The same happened PS2 and PS1 generations.
History says, Ps4 will only come when the plan said so, ie. 7 years(ish) in, with a 3yr product overlap. -
Robotron
- 9:39pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 41
@6...OMG you are so right. You have convinced me to sell my PS3 and only use my 360. I'll make sure to PAY for 4 Live accounts so everyone in my house can get online to play and PAY for the same game multiple times so users on the SAME console have access to the content I already PAID for. Not to mention I don't know what I'll do when my 360 is out for repair AGAIN since it's already died 6 times. I guess since I don't have a warranty I can BUY another 360 when it dies since the only thing improving MS's numbers is the amount of re-purchases from people who want to continue playing the games they PAID for.....but then I won't be able to transfer over all my data to the new system since MS made that impossible too. You know why it's called the 360? Because all MS does is chase their tail in a circle....so are you just a total moron corporate loving idiot or an MS employee....because you post like an MS employee.....or are you ANOTHER bored 360 owner with nothing better to do with your time than troll PS sites because your precious machine is in for repairs AGAIN?
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DigitalBeast
- 9:49pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 42
@6 (cheerleader for the competition...) PS4 can't have a 1TB or a 2TB drive? O_o
That, along with a speedy BLU-RAY drive will make for an excellent console. Be gone, XBUTT-CHEERLEADER!!! ^_--
But yes, SONY would be fine with those two I think. And they can cut costs by simply offering a couple of faster CELLs, instead of developing a whole new design, along with a capable GPU. Devs will be much more comfy with the design by then. Add those, and it is a sweet console indeed, that shouldn't cost as much, while delivering a great experience. GO PS(not XBOX)! ^_--
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jello_snake
- 10:19pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 43
If one developer launched a next gen system too early, it would be getting current gen games for it, since all devs want there games to be multi-platform for optimal profits.
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The Mask |
JSack20- 10:30pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 44
my thoughts are if there is a PS4 it won't release for at least another 4 years after a slim ps3 has been announced and it will either be graphical servers that store all games you've bought and streams everything to you like on-live but with a ps3 built-in for backwards compatibility or it will the same as PS3 with improved hardware such as hollagram disks as the main storage device, and an optical drive that uses ultraviolet light if there's going to be an upgraded optical drive, probably dualcell ( ha ha sounds like duracel ) 512MB to 1GB RAM/VRAM, 2160p resolution and an entire car radiator and fan as a cooling system and because of it's size the 600TB model will have a built-in 40" Bravia - oops got more dramatic as I went on and as soon as M$ here there's going to be a PS4 they'll suddenly rush out Xbox 720. one thing I do know is whatever PS4 turns out to be it won't release too early and will be fully backwards compatible and will last 10 years minimum
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Strudel |
Strudel- 10:38pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 45
I think we should go back to cartridges, remember giving them a quick blow to get rid of dust, man I miss those days.
Seriously though, no one can predict when the next gen is going to happen until something is leaked, until then its all speculation, and bad speculation at that.
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incredibilistic
- 11:27pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 47
Someone mentioned 3D graphics. You don't need a new console for that, just a new TV. Sony's message has always been that the PS3 is the most future proof system on the market. And they're right. The fact that they were running Wipeout and Gran Turismo in 3D at this past years CES is proof that they have the technology in the box.
If anything we'll have 3D-OLED displays by 2011 before we even begin talking about the PS4. My money's on PS4 in late 2012. Heck maybe 2013 and frankly I'm okay with that. The power of the PS3 has yet to be tapped by all these lazy, whiny developers.
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terminator12259 |
tacitassassin25- 11:47pm BST - August 11th, 2009
- 48
i doubt it the PS3 is miles ahead of the other consoles at the moment
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Acid-Hippie2007 |
Acid-Hippie2007- 12:02am BST - August 12th, 2009
- 50
I don't think Sony will release anything new in the next 2 years at least.
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