View Full Version : X-Box2 Peak @ 6 months after release?
Obviously this is an opion string, all that follows are my opions and should not be taken for fact;
Alright let me try to start some discussion on wether or not you believe X-Box2 peak will be somewhere soon after the release of the system. Looking at all the information we have now I am making the following assumptions:
1. X-Box2 Dev Kits have been out for over 2 years now. (will be about 3 years when it is released?)
2. X-Box2 is supposedly easy to developer for.
3. PS3 is far superior hardware wise then X-box2.
4. PS3 will release about 6-8 months after X-Box2.
Now if dev. kits have been out for so long, and they system is easy to develop for, then we are probably going to see about the best graphics on the system at or near launch time. Sure they may be able to tweak graphics a bit and get a bit more out of the system, but just look at X-Box first year game graphics and games that just came out this year, there is less noticiable difference. Taking into account that develpers have had years to work on release games, this makes me believe that we will see near the best they have to offer on that system at or near launch time.
Let's face it, PS3 is looking far superior hardware wise then XBox2. Assuming Sony keeps exclusivitey of it's AAA titles, and has superior graphics, when the PS3 launches will be the death nail for X-Box2.
Most gamers only purcahase one system, when PS3 is released and their chocie is between industry leader (2 generations and counting), most AAA exclusive titles, and best hardware system, or X-Box2 which by then will already have seen the best graphics they had to offer, it will not be a hard choice.
I figure the 6 month range as X-Box2 peak simply becuase whoever is going to buy an XBox2 will most likley do it during this range, sales will drop sharply after the PS3 release, and game developers will then be working mainly for the PS3 as they already know it will have a larger inital market percentage, as well as being best looking next generation console (best hardware, largest fan base, coming from 2 previous dominate consoles.)
The issue with this logic is that it's not about the graphics, its about the games.
Even if the graphics were maxed after 6 months, games would keep coming out. Some which you will not be able to get on the PS3.
As far as being maxed out after 6 months. As I have said elsewhere, the Xbox2 tools enable easy programming, but to get the most out of the system will still require a ton of work. As it's life progresses (just like with other systems) developers will tweak more and more and write straight down to the metal more and more. Thus you will see better and better graphics come available.
On a side note, this same argument was used for the original Xbox. Everyone expected it to be tapped at or near launch. Needless to say, it wasn't as is proved by the likes of Riddick, Ninja Gaiden, DOA Ultimate, and Halo2.
The PS3 being far superior is debatable. We don't even know what class of Cell chip is going in the system and speeds are up in the air. Then comes the GPUs for both. No one knows their current clock rates or has all the information on their advanced functionality.
As far as this paragraph concerns
Most gamers only purcahase one system, when PS3 is released and their chocie is between industry leader (2 generations and counting), most AAA exclusive titles, and best hardware system, or X-Box2 which by then will already have seen the best graphics they had to offer, it will not be a hard choice.
As stated above the Xbox2 will not be maxed on graphics, let alone what will be able to be done in the areas of AI, Live, Physics, ect...
But my final point, Nintendo was the industry leader for 2 generations and counting. The N64 was substantionally more powerful hardware. They lost.
muchuukuri
02-28-2005, 20:26
Oh, this is interesting! I was actually wonderig about this... I keep thinking about the DC, I can't remember a single game that came out that looked much nicer than all the others, so I was wondering... but 6 months is harsh to say the least... maybe the DC had 6 months, but for X2...
My guess is it'll tap out at around 3 years... barring outliers, but you never include outliers in averages, anyway... well, unless you're trying to sway the masses... not like anyone does that though. -_- Stupid politics. ANYWAY, I see the ease of programming for X2 as bunk. Maybe for the newbies, 'cause they can just use the stuff M$ dishes out in XNA, as I understand it, but there's so little REAL literature that I can't say I truely understand... Anyway, it'll be easy at first, but when they start to go hey this XNA API ain't cutting the mustard no more... they'll end up doing what PS2 and PS3 programmers do. Dealing with SIMD and SMT. PERIOD. There's NO way around that, and that could 'cause problems. There may be a point where we see a dip, yes a dip, in graphics. Programmers will use X2 XNA and then the sudden switch to drop the use of XNA could cause programming havoc. Hopefully, that won't happen, but because of the sudden change, we'll see the 2nd gen graphics take a while to whittle through, and then in a 2years or so peak. Of course, M$ could keep revising the XNA set so as to push things and allow the programmers to continue with the statous-quo, but that might be too taxing, I think. This could speed up peak time. Also, people might NOT move away from the APIs and things might peak quickly, but the graphics won't be as great. 'Course, XNA COULD be that magic silver bullet the programming industry needs, but I SERIOUSLY doubt it.
EDIT:: Ah, I forgot about the PS3... we're looking at 3 years as well. People are used to the PS2 now, onyl thing anyone really complains about now is the 32MB of RAM...Xbox has 64MB, I think. So, it won't be a perfect transition, but people'll have the general idea going to the PS3... it'll be a year of heavy learning followed by some developing along... why not move faster since people already know the basics, kinda?? Well, almost undoubtedly, there'll be more SPEs on the PS3 than X2... balancing the extras is gonna be tricky.
Yeah I agree with you Siren, in that it will be the games.
In my mind if X-Box2 is going to be competitive in the next generation, they have got to take some PS2 players right now and convince them to get an X-Box2 prior to release of PS3. Of course we can debate about how to do this, but games is the best way. If they are going to be competitive, they got to convince some Playstation users to get an XBox2, and to do that in my mind would be giving some great XBox only games.
That is why I say they got to do this before PS3 release, but most Playstaion gamers (the average gamer does not read this forum) will be waiting for PS3, and or his/her favorite game series titles.
As far as the PS3 superiority debate, at least hardware wise, I honestly don't think it is a debate at this point. Do we know final cell chip definitions? No, but we also don't know any final X-Box2 stats, and that dev kit has been out for awhile now. PS3 stats are finalized dev kits are out, and I have read from multiple sources, that at least hardware wise the PS3 is far superior to XBox2, I think that debate is all but dead.
As far as Nintendo goes, it doesn't really apply here. Nintedo did not have the "best" hardware in fact hardware is what killed them. Nintendo shot themselves in the foot with the whole cartiaridge over disk decision (made worst top 10 video game decisions all time in EGM). This forced all major 3rd party developers to other system (enter Playstation) since Square couldn't put Final Fantasy VII on cartiridge and keep cost low. Gamers go where the games go, and with all the new 3rd party titles on PS1, so the gamers went.
bustabusta196
02-28-2005, 20:55
Every Playstation person.. dont wanna label anyone Fan-boys but.. people who back a system happen to be one.. Look at this generation.. Xbox has better HARDware then Sony.. and yet everyone on the PS2 side are like well the PS2 is better cause of the games.. No one says the Ps2 is better becuase it has better hardware then Xbox, everyone knows this. So what makes you think that switching roles for what Sony has done already(games) is going to hurt Xbox.. it seems like people are starting to have a taste of there own medicine lol..
tell me one person right now that does say sonys better because it has better hardware then the xbox. I can pretty much go to any PS2aholic and ask them which is better and why and they say who cares about hardware, ps2 has better games lol.. now what is everyone saying on the Sony side.. Hardware is gonna kill Xbox.
and im sorry for hurting any PS2 fans feelings but if you look at it the way i just explained its true.
I don't think I said anywhere PS3 will beat X-Box just becuase they got better hardware. Fact is X-Box does have better hardware then PS2, but also fact is PS2 has more and better AAA games then X-Box.
now what is everyone saying on the Sony side.. Hardware is gonna kill Xbox..
I think you are missing mine, and everyone else's point. If PS2 beat X-Box becuase they had better games with worse hardware, what do you think is going to happen now that PS3 has better hardware? Sony keeps their exclusive AAA title games, but instead of Microsoft having better hardware making better looking cross-platform games, now Sony has better hardware to go with better games.
This is what X-Box2 has to overcome, they now cannot rely on"we got better hardware, and slighty better looking cross platform games". Now they have got to produce better and more exclusive AAA titles, and they have done little to prove they can do that up to this point.
bustabusta196
02-28-2005, 21:14
The reason xbox doesnt have as many AAA titles as PS2 was because they have been in the gaming biz longer then Microsoft.. they had PS1 and they already gained alot more support when duking it out with Nintendo. So they already had some leverage.. but people soley claim that PS2 is better now adays because of games.. Im not saying PS3 will lose, but people are being hipacritical (think i spelled that right) about this generation and next generation..
Ps2Fan- PS2 pwned this generation cause they have better games, xbox just has hardware.
2005+ Ps3Fan - PS3 pwned this generation cause Ps3 is insanely more powerful then xbox2.
You say you didnt comment about Ps3 beating xbox soley on powerful hardware... look at your sig lol
"One high-profile developer who has seen both the PS3 and XBox 2 technology recentley whispered into my innocent ear, "The next PlayStation is way, way, more powerful than Xbox 2. It's insanely powerful."... Source E.G.M."
I know you didnt say it but your also agreeing with it im sure by putting it in your sig.
anyways im not looking to start a flame war, i just like to argue and see peoples points.
and im sorry for hurting any PS2 fans feelings but if you look at it the way i just explained its true.
*hangs self* your fault that happend, now we got a PS fan dead, thank god I didnt do it.
Am jokeing, and i did mention, that it wasnt me who would hang my self just because you type the truth. :D
bustabusta196
02-28-2005, 21:26
lol its the internet.. if you take fighting or arguing on the internet seriously.. you need to stop, take a breather, and find a different hobby rather then post on forums lol. but thats just the way i feel about it.
I think you are blinded a bit, becuase now you are seeing what is not really there.
You say you didnt comment about Ps3 beating xbox soley on powerful hardware... look at your sig lol I am obviously a Sony fan (me and a few million others.), but I do know what is in my sig is a direct quote and stated fact from a gaming magazine. Nowhere in that sig quote does it claim a next generation console winner, it is just more proof to the fact that PS3 is more powerful then X-Box2, that's it.
I know you didnt say it but your also agreeing with it im sure by putting it in your sig. then maybe you should read my previous post, cause obviously you did not;
I think you are missing mine, and everyone else's point. If PS2 beat X-Box becuase they had better games with worse hardware, what do you think is going to happen now that PS3 has better hardware? Sony keeps their exclusive AAA title games, but instead of Microsoft having better hardware making better looking cross-platform games, now Sony has better hardware to go with better games.
PS2 owned this generation not only on games, but also just the numbers dont lie, it has 4 times as many consoles as any other system out there. This alone is a fact even Micro fan boy's cannot argue.
So Microsoft thas to do something different, they have to get better or die.
What I am saying is one reason X-Box sold at all, was that it was the better technical system. If people played mainly cross-platform games, and did not like very few Sony exclusive titles, there was little reason for them to get a PS2. Now they have lost that distinction, how are they going to gain that market share back? IMO they have got to get more and better AAA title exclusive games.
bustabusta196
02-28-2005, 21:42
Being out a year longer then the Xbox is a major reason PS2 has more sales but im sure it wouldnt be a GREAT difference if xbox had that extra year im sure PS2 would of had its same leverage over xbox seeing that Xbox is the new comer this generation, and many people who claim they wont buy a Microsoft product lol.. your probably on a computer thats running Windows.. and last time i checked windows is a Microsoft product.. but anyways example..
Would you rather buy a reliable car that you have bought before and that you know can perform.. or would you rather buy something new that you havent tried out yet and dont know about its performance.. Many people who were already or just started getting into the gaming experience went with the more reliable choice. PS2.. but idk regardless of Xbox2 or Ps3 winning im really just looking forward to playing Xbox Live more then anything with some killer graphics. but im glad there is competition.
Chaotic_King
03-01-2005, 03:44
But my final point, Nintendo was the industry leader for 2 generations and counting. The N64 was substantionally more powerful hardware. They lost.
If you are claiming Sony is anywhere near Nintendo's position after the SNES.... :roll:
The N64 used cartridges, while the PS used disk-based media. Nintendo had also burned bridges with many developers/publishers, Sony still has very good relations with them. You know what, Sony even stands to gain more developer support next generation. A lot of the Xbox exclusives are only exclusive to the Xbox, because of it being considerably more powerful than the PS2. (I'd say competition, but that would imply Nintendo) :wink:
But if you want to use the N64 as means to compare the PS3, I'll use the Dreamcast to compare with the Xenon. :roll:
The reason xbox doesnt have as many AAA titles as PS2 was because they have been in the gaming biz longer then Microsoft.. they had PS1 and they already gained alot more support when duking it out with Nintendo. So they already had some leverage.. but people soley claim that PS2 is better now adays because of games.. Im not saying PS3 will lose, but people are being hipacritical (think i spelled that right) about this generation and next generation..
Ps2Fan- PS2 pwned this generation cause they have better games, xbox just has hardware.
2005+ Ps3Fan - PS3 pwned this generation cause Ps3 is insanely more powerful then xbox2.
You say you didnt comment about Ps3 beating xbox soley on powerful hardware... look at your sig lol
"One high-profile developer who has seen both the PS3 and XBox 2 technology recentley whispered into my innocent ear, "The next PlayStation is way, way, more powerful than Xbox 2. It's insanely powerful."... Source E.G.M."
I know you didnt say it but your also agreeing with it im sure by putting it in your sig.
anyways im not looking to start a flame war, i just like to argue and see peoples points.
The reason that the Xbox doesn't have as many AAA titles as the PS2, also resides on another fact. The majority of great PS2 games, come from Japan. The PS will always have that advantage of Microsoft, because the PlayStation brand is insanely popular in Japan. PS fans are happy with the reports of the PS3 being more powerful than the competition, because that was:
A) Xbox fanboys' biggest thing. They've got the more powerful console. The PS2 is a POS2, etc. etc. etc. The tables will likely be turned.
B) Couple with the third party support, and the most powerful hardware, PS3's got a lot going for it.
YOU SHOULD KNOW BETTER THAN TO DOUBLE POST
Are you quite sure about Sony?
Sony has burned bridges with Developers. One look at the likes of Working Designs will show you that. Working designs is quite likely to go out of business now because Sony refused to let them certify a game (Growlanser II) and kept changing the rules on them right when they tried to certify (no CD sprites).
They stopped working designs from Shipping Growlanser II for almost 2 years, and then made them bundle II & III together in order to ship them. Nice work. Working Designs publically lambasted Sony on their own forums several times last year.
I wish I could throw out the main reason for saying this, but then I would get burned at the stake. Suffice it to say, while MS doesn't have something like CD vs. Cartridges to throw at Sony, they have something else. Not quite as big of a brick, but still will make an impact. They are changing the gaming experience, in their own way.
You could also argue that the reason for the Xbox's recent surge in popularity is due to it's overwhelming US developer support. The irony of the situation is that US games are becoming increasingly more popular in Japan, while their natively developing titles are starting to decrease in sales.
Chaotic_King
03-01-2005, 04:17
Are you quite sure about Sony?
Sony has burned bridges with Developers. One look at the likes of Working Designs will show you that. Working designs is quite likely to go out of business now because Sony refused to let them certify a game (Growlanser II) and kept changing the rules on them right when they tried to certify (no CD sprites).
They stopped working designs from Shipping Growlanser II for almost 2 years, and then made them bundle II & III together in order to ship them. Nice work. Working Designs publically lambasted Sony on their own forums several times last year.
I wish I could throw out the main reason for saying this, but then I would get burned at the stake. Suffice it to say, while MS doesn't have something like CD vs. Cartridges to throw at Sony, they have something else. Not quite as big of a brick, but still will make an impact. They are changing the gaming experience, in their own way.
You could also argue that the reason for the Xbox's recent surge in popularity is due to it's overwhelming US developer support. The irony of the situation is that US games are becoming increasingly more popular in Japan, while their natively developing titles are starting to decrease in sales.
Are you saying that Microsoft hasn't burned their own fair share of bridges? Look at Level-5 for example. Great RPG developer, brand new. Do you want to know their reason as to why True Fantasy Live Online was cancelled?
In a recent interview with the popular Japanese magazine Dorimaga, the President of Level-5 software, Hakihiro Hino talked about the cancelled Xbox project, True Fantasy Live Online. He revealed quite candidly that one of the major reasons that the game was never released was because of strained relations between Microsoft and Level-5.
Which system the game would be finished for wasn't specified, but president Hino did mention in the interview that the chances of it coming to the PlayStation 2 and PC were rather strong. Level-5 has had a beneficial relationship with Sony in particular, as it has developed some of the system's most critically acclaimed RPGs in Dark Cloud and Dark Cloud 2.
http://xbox.ign.com/articles/577/577269p1.html
What are you supposedly saying? You might or might not know about the Xenon, ok. But you have no clue what Sony has up their sleeves. Do you think Sony is just going to stand there and let Microsoft blow past them? Don't you think Sony's going to fight tooth and nail to secure the position? You say Microsoft will have their own advantage, and will impact Sony greatly. Are you saying Sony doesn't have their own impact? Microsoft doesn't have the advantage of using CD v. Cartridge. But guess what, according to plenty of sites, Sony will have the advantage of using the Blu-Ray in the PS3, while Microsoft is still sticking with DVDs. Kind of a big advantage for Sony, huh? I mean, Microsoft can't sell the Xenon as a cheap DVD player like Sony did, because the majority of people already have them. But Sony can with BR-DVDs.
:lol: Practically the only western series that has done incredibly well in Japan is Grand Theft Auto. (Under Capcom's name of course) Look at Halo, for example, the second one sold much less than the first one did.
It's not worth to argue anymore, because you can't speak about anything.
If I mentioned what I know about the Level-5 deal, knowing that several other Microsoft employees who know who I am peruse this forum, I would be hunted down and sued into oblivion. Without going to...
Epsilon-Zero
03-01-2005, 06:51
Heh just to comment Hakihiro Hino is an @#$. Some stuff he tried to pull was ridiculous. He had a good thing going but unfortunatly for him MS sticks to their guns and has a stern face at the poker table. 8)
Chaotic_King
03-01-2005, 13:04
See, this is one thing that I hate. You imply you know more about the Level-5 deal, yet you then say that you can't tell me. So if you can't mention anything, what's the point of posting that? <br />
<br />
...
MiThRaZoR
03-01-2005, 14:01
See, this is one thing that I hate. You imply you know more about the Level-5 deal, yet you then say that you can't tell me. So if you can't mention anything, what's the point of posting that?
To tell you what would happen if he did tell you something. Stop askin' so many questions.
If I mentioned what I know about the Level-5 deal, knowing that several other Microsoft employees who know who I am peruse this forum, I would be hunted down and sued into oblivion. Without going to far, what he says is true, there were strained relationships. The question is, who strained them. This is still an example of a developer not getting along with Micosoft. Let's face it the bigger you get the more people and companies you work with, the more problems you are going to have. Sony is larger (4x) then X-Box and works with more developers, so they are going to have more problems. Seems to me though, Sony keeps major developers happy at least that they continue to make games for them.
All this developer friendly stuff is kinda funny, as developers are just like very other buisness and they are in it for the money. The major reason any developer picks any system to put a game on is market share. As long as Sony holds a large lead on percentage of consoles on the market, they will have to most developers, as they want the most people possible to buy their game.
Ask yourself. Why is Microsoft picking up developers like their water? Why did the Xbox get more games last year released on it than the PS2 did with 1/4th of the market share? Any major developers with any major game titles, or just more P.C. cross-over and multi-platform games?
What does Blu-Ray bring to the PS2 that is so revolutionary? Increased disc space and ability to play the next generation of movies? What does this do for Video games and your gaming experience? Are you serious? Hell yeah, larger disk space, faster data transfer rates (5x), and HD movies playable on my game console another reason for HD TV owners to get a PS3. So what is revolutionary about putting a DVD in X-Box2 ?
Now Microsoft has come along and offered, even cheaper royalties, easier and lower cost development, cheaper disc medium, faster and fair certification, and an online service that not only puts games online, but makes it affordable and profitable to do so. The only reason we know it may easier and lower cost of development on next generation (Xbox2 vs PS3) is becuase PS3 is, and I quote a developer here, "far far more powerful then X-Box2", so to take more advantage of a more powerful system it may take more development time to do this. I guess you could use developing PS1 or PS2 games for example here.
You keep saying cheaper disc medium, but you keep ignorning the fact Blu-Ray will be able to play DVD, you say Sony is limiting developers to Blu-Ray only games, but I have yet to see a source on this. Not to mention this difference is so miniumal, accoriding to several developers it has not even been a concern.
True Poet
03-01-2005, 15:51
I wish I could throw out the main reason for saying this, but then I would get burned at the stake. Suffice it to say, while MS doesn't have something like CD vs. Cartridges to throw at Sony, they have something else. Not quite as big of a brick, but still will make an impact. They are changing the gaming experience, in their own way.
I know Siren's under an NDA, but I'm taking this to affirm the rumour that Microsoft will be providing full game downloads.
I wish I could throw out the main reason for saying this, but then I would get burned at the stake. Suffice it to say, while MS doesn't have something like CD vs. Cartridges to throw at Sony, they have something else. Not quite as big of a brick, but still will make an impact. They are changing the gaming experience, in their own way.
I know Siren's under an NDA, but I'm taking this to affirm the rumour that Microsoft will be providing full game downloads.
LOL, how? When they are offering systems with and without hard drives? How are you going to download a game without a hard drive? Them spliting systems to with and without hard drives lead me more to believe that the hard drive usage will not be improved upon from the existing generation, if it was it would be standard.
muchuukuri
03-01-2005, 16:29
Actually, this affirms a suspicion I have and I'll state it here, and Siren himself in another thread said this is true... although, he's seemingly avoided answering questions I had about this... I dunno if he's pissed at me, yelled at him pretty bad in one thread, worried maybe I'm catching on, or just plain didn't notice... but I definately get the sense of avoidance... 'course, maybe I'm just being a sensitive, little Miss mamby-pamby...
You can see my question here:
http://www.ps3forums.com/viewtopic.php?t=1278
THIS, my guess, is the magical silver bullet Siren is talking about... although, I think there are no such things, and I believe Siren has said this as well... will, this really swing things in M$'s direction? Maybe, the more I learn and think about it... the less holy poop I feel, its still AWESOME, but the complexity in doing this seems to drop more and more as I read and learn about it...
Yeh and 20million potential customers buying the game, while Sony have 80million potential customers. BAM no questions asked, its about the money the Developers make not cheep disk medium, royaltys...
Chaotic_King
03-01-2005, 16:48
See, this is one thing that I hate. You imply you know more about the Level-5 deal, yet you then say that you can't tell me. So if you can't mention anything, what's the point of posting that?
To tell you what would happen if he did tell you something. Stop askin' so many questions.
I never asked him to tell me what would happen if he did tell me. I never even asked him about it. I posted what the President of Level-5 stated.
PeanutButterMunky
03-01-2005, 22:37
Get back to the topic and stop arguing please.
bustabusta196
03-01-2005, 23:11
=You can see my question here:
http://www.ps3forums.com/viewtopic.php?t=1278
THIS, my guess, is the magical silver bullet Siren is talking about... although, I think there are no such things, and I believe Siren has said this as well... will, this really swing things in M$'s direction? Maybe, the more I learn and think about it... the less holy poop I feel, its still AWESOME, but the complexity in doing this seems to drop more and more as I read and learn about it...
So since Siren cant explain anything would you mind getting more detailed about what your guess would be microsoft has up there sleeve muchuukuri???
muchuukuri
03-02-2005, 16:30
Well, developing for SMT/SIMD based systems simply put... SUCKS... there's SO much more you have to worry about. To try and keep this simple... it prolly won't make sense, but forgive me... multimedia processing relies heavily on performing a small operation on LOTS of data. For instance, reading an image, there's a piece of data for EACH pixel on your screen.. the operation only has to read what the color is and then put it on the screen, BUT it has to do this MILLIONS of times...normal database/text/word processing stuff... does TONS of operations on a small set of data... so for instance you open a M$ Word, the document is the data but you're typing, theres spell check, fonts, colors, styles, templates, auto-check, so on and so on... you apply MANY operations to a small data set.
Standard computing works off the word processing comcept, we have tons of RAM to store our data in but small buses to transport it, but thats fine since with word processing stuff we do a lot of work on a small piece a data, so we just put all that data into RAM and we don't have to worry about moving it around and we do or boat load of operations on it. HOWEVER, when multimedia comes along this doesn't apply, its the reverse, and as a result we get bottlenecked with buses and this and that.
The SIMD SMT architecture is a way around this... the concept works like this... instead of using a single tunnel lets make a bunch, now there are four tunnels and lots more can go through... BUT this 'cause a problem with timing. Lets say we have a operation we're going to do that require 4 piece of info... say, color, lighting, size, and depth... with SIMD we duplicate this data and pass it through the 4 tunnels, this way we don't have to do one after the other to get all the info we can do it all at once, and each operation is performed at the same time... but what if one fails or one takes longer than the others?? Then we have some screwed up timing problems, and THIS is what kill it for prorammers. With SIMD we now have to break things down into, in this example, 4 parts exactly and then make sure they get through at the same time so then we can use that data to do something else and so on. Timing SUCKS.
The Sony EE and CELL, I dunno about the X2 or Revolution which have both switched to this processing method, further exasperate this by saying, "you know, what?". Since buswidth and speed are what were concerned with, remember we're working on tons of multimedia data not a small document so storing it in RAM isn't easy unless we've got say 4 gigs...yeah..., lets just dump the RAM a nd use a little and just allow really FAST and BIG buses, in come rambus's technologies, then we can just stream the data through all fast like and get performance, this also means if there's a timing failure you get A BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIG slow down 'cause you basically 'casued a traffic jam. So now timig is even more crucial.
More over, we all basically learn how to program the document way since that's how also PCs are built. That's why PC video games need more and more RAM, they load more in more into it to work on rather than streaming it, since PCs suck at streaming, because the buses are small.
SO lack of understanding couple with just butt dificult timing and HUGE traffic Jams that result from bad timing make SIMD programming SUCK. More over, the programmer alone is the only one who can make sure this doesn't happen, 'cause the CPU simply doesn't have the foresight and intellect to do this sort a thing... as a result newbies, who've never done this sort of thing have a heck of a time adjusting and can't make full use of the SIMD.
But lucky you, it doesn't end there!!! SMT... what it? Basically it's multiple threaded instructions... think P4 HT (hyper threading) the concept is you can issue multiple instructions at the same time... SO, now Imagine ALLLL that garbage time 2... YAY!! -_- Of course, it doesn't stop with just more of the same, now you have to schedule, which thread goes 1st.... if both need to use all 4 tunnels and they're running at the same time??? You guessed it, a pile up followed by loooong traffic jams... so timing is now SCORES more inportant. And I haven't even touched on how programming itself changes...
BUT, wait, what if there was some middleware that does this for you? Where you could continue programming like it was your standard PC style world? It would handle all this choas FOR you. Life would be easy and joyous and small newbie start-ups wouldn't have to drown in a sea of programming problems, but in fact just do what they wanna do; make games!! It means the turn around would be faster and it'd be easier for more people to get involved and make games. BRILLIANT!!!
BUT, again, there's a porblem... this means that something is doing all that timing for you... what if it's inefficient... what if it's wasting too much RAM? What if it just sucks, all previous attempts have. More over, the concept in itslef is great, but its simply IMPOSSIBLE to return to the PC standard programming enviroment, unless M$ has revolutinized it, there are simly things that MUST be done. Also, of course, going back to efficeincy... can you do it better? What happens when you reach the ceiling using this program? Do you toss it aside so that you can squeeze more out it or do you remain content?? SImpy put it, ewven if it does revolutionize, it's still no magic bullet.
I hope that explains it for you... I'll make clarifications as I can, but well... I can't promise anything... but I'll try.
hey DezNutz who said this about the ps3
PS3 is far superior hardware wise then X-box2
i guess u where reading what EA said.
you should never belive what EA says be cause they are a bunch of
butt kissers.
How do you mean Peak?
If you mean in rate of console sales, then yeah, sure id agree with that. Since they are likely going to be the only console on the market, a competent ad campaign will give them great results. They will be able to keep the shelves almost sold out constantly if they play their cards right. This is not a good thing for SONY. If MS peaks right at the release of PS3, then people are already starting to get tired of game machines and aren't about to go to the story AGAIN, or go to the store knowing they are going to have to fight lines and a crowd.
If people get excited about the PS3 launch though, then they may start buying XBOX2's because they are so excited about the release, they just can't wait. Thusly, the release of the PS3 would actually HELP the Xbox numbers right up till the actual PS3 release.
If you are talking about over all number then I flatly disagree with you. But I don’t see how you would mean overall numbers dieing off after 6 moths. That just isn't logical, especially if there hasn't been a price drop, because the price drop will cause a whole second wave of buyers to flood the stores.
muchuukuri
03-02-2005, 23:27
Cyrusmg, he's talking about when will GRAPHICS peak. In other words, when will the graphics be at the point where thet don't appreciable get any better.
6 Months, give me a break? If that happened, I'd be a monkey's uncle's arse. :roll:
I don't really know if NeXtBox's graphics will peak after six months. I think the main reason Sony made PS2 as hard to develop for was so that gamers would see the system's games graphics getting better over time. Now consider the Xbox. Halo and Halo 2 look pretty much the same at least in my opinion, though admittedly there is some graphical difference. I believe that XNA will allow developers to get more out of NeXtBox than usual, but a thought just occured to me. If the reports are true and there are 3 IBM processors inside of the system then developers will have their hands full regardless. With that in mind, no, I don't believe NeXtBox will reach its graphical peak after six months.
I think the main reason Sony made PS2 as hard to develop for was so that gamers would see the system's games graphics getting better over time.
First thing I wanna say: Welcome to the board Fedos
Second: Let's get down to business, shall we?
Sony didn't WANT to make it hard to develop for, but they did because that's the only way they could jam so much power, by using a totally new and foreign architecture. What other 7 year old hardware can crunch out 6.1 GFLOp/s? None, there you go.
If the reports are true and there are 3 IBM processors inside of the system then developers will have their hands full regardless.
You can disregard those rumours. Devs with dev kits have already said that the Xenon won't feature 3 dual-core PPC chips.
muchuukuri
03-08-2005, 04:07
Ho! The_One, you sure about that?? Wow, that could be huge... if its not 3... honestly, I'd say M$ is in trouble... hardware wise... we're talking about losing a mulitplier here... The way I see the math if breaks down like this... about 10 or so flops per cycle per core mulitplied by 4GHZ give 40GFLOPs per chip... times 3 chips means 120 GFLOPs... but if its just 2... then even at 1 CELL with 4x SPEs Sony will have a good power advantage... I can't imagine M$ conceeding to something like that... maybe they were aiming originally to break 100GFLOPs total?? I could easily see the GPU adding at least 20 more... and the thought of 100 GFLOPs sounds REALLY good... so I could see abunch of people sitting down and saying, "lets aim for 100GFLOPs". Maybe I'm taking it too seriously, though??
Well, I know for a fact that the cores won't reach 4Ghz (or even 3.5Ghz). I'm also quite certain that it will not contain 3 dual-core PPC chips. 2, possible. The GPU should be the extra kicker, it should add quite a lot of FLOp/s count, at least more than a mere 20GFLOp/s.
The GPU itself should be aiming for sub 100GFLOp/s target, if they don't want to kill themselves. However, Microsoft changes the spec on a daily basis... so even the devs doesn't have a clue what the final specs will be. It could be very possible that it somehow miraculously it ends up with 3 dual-core PPC chips, but definately not clocked at more than 2.5Ghz each if that happens.
Really? Are you so sure of any of that? What is your source?
My understanding is that Microsoft hasn't changed the specs in quite some time. On top of this, no one outside of MS has seen the "Final Specs".
One of the big things Microsoft has been pushing for is ease of development. If they were changing everything daily, that wouldn't exactly make things easy now would it?
Well, I know devs who says that MS seems to change the specs on a daily basis, they even said that the clock and RAM varied from day to say (From 2-4Ghz, from 128MB-1GB)! The only thing the devs aren't sure are the bandwidths. Anyhow, I think this is simply to keep the devs out the of "final specs" circle so that they can't leak anything out. I'm pretty sure the final specs SHOULD be finalized, or at least close to being finalized.
Really? Are you so sure of any of that? What is your source?
Yes, I'm quite sure. I've had someone in comp-sci major explain to me that to reach 120GFLOp/s, 3 PPC cores have to be clocked at 4Ghz, 2-SMT (The SMT doesn't affect the total GFLOp/s rating, it simply makes it easier to reach there). However, that would prove to be very hard to do (not impossible) due to the fact that at 100% power, each PPC core would consume at least 80+ watts. The temp for each core would be very high too (well over the normal acceptable ranges, no exact number was given to me).
u think for the time being we can remove the login bar on the home page...its bothering to have it and not log in.