Is coming out first really that important?

[Cross Punisher]

Ok I know I'm new, but I have 2 questions

1) Is coming out first really that important? By coming out first you hope to sell more units than the competitor, but people aren't going to switch sides just because something else comes out first.

2) By coming out first the next-generation XBOX will probably be weaker than the PS3, and there are already rumors that the PS3 is more powerful. My question is there any proof as of yet to determine which system is stronger?

Sorry if these questions have already been asked.

[SessDMC]

Hey its not a problem, you do have a point, nintendo have been whining that MS are cutting the shelf life of the Xbox.
But coming out first has one major advantage:
the average, non-computer literate joe, if MS release there console, shows off better graphics then they are shure to get that console first probably.

Well we dont know much about either next gen consoles, but from the looks of what we got so far, PS3 is far stronger in the hardware department, were not sure about the software department. And Xbox2 is looking strong in the software department, but as you may know Sony is trying to make strong software for its next Gen system they may suceed their goal if they can get dev kits out.

Just a thought i have about the PS3 Dev kits, because of Cell it will take less time makeing animation renders, and also if the programmers knows a language very well (like open GL, collada, Cg, C++ and C) if they release more dev kits this year i would find it pheasable for them to get games out by launch on time. and have some tech or playable demos by E3 soon.

(Also on a side note, i got 64 points on my unit 1 ICT course that means i got a level 2 pass! woohoo! but just leave it at that)

[Chaotic_King]

Microsoft is only coming out early because they know that they can't come out at the same time as Sony. They've been complaining on and on that the only reason that the PS2 dominated the Xbox, was because they were out first. (Although, they weren't out first, Sega was.)

Kind of funny, big ol' Microsoft, don't have the guts to release around the same time as Sony. (And the funny thing is, the place where they'll be releasing very close to the PS3, is the one market they are guaranteed to lose. )

[PS Gamer]

My thoughts on this whole concept are the following,

To put it in "Lamence Terms" IMO The Xbox2 will have a Lead in the graphics area, while the PS3 will have a Lead in the Speed and Processor area. For instance, Xbox2 has amazing graphics and a half decent processor, while the PS3 has some nice graphics(Half-decent) and unbelieveable speeds for the processor.

[mudger]

Microsoft is only coming out early because they know that they can't come out at the same time as Sony. They've been complaining on and on that the only reason that the PS2 dominated the Xbox, was because they were out first. (Although, they weren't out first, Sega was.)

OK here you are wrong. Microsoft may not have dominated the market had it come out at the same time but for a fact its sales numbers would have been much higher and ps2 much lower because of the competition. I guarantee that there is going to be a lot of people with an xbox 2 and a ps3 simply because they want to get their hands on next gen consoles NOW!

Kind of funny, big ol' Microsoft, don't have the guts to release around the same time as Sony. (And the funny thing is, the place where they'll be releasing very close to the PS3, is the one market they are guaranteed to lose. )

Thats just smart marketing buddy, guts has nothing to do with it.

[DezNutz]

I would disagree with ya Chatoic, I see Microsoft releasing first becuase quite honestly they have too. If they didnt release first there would be NO Next Generation as Sony would be content to stay with this generation becuase they are dominating it.

To answer your questions from my opionon:

1) No it is not that important. But it is important for microsoft and x-Box, they need to do something different becuase they are losing the current generation, if they did the same nothing would change. They are kinda forced to come out first to try and take advantage, but during the last 3 generations the system that came out first lost.

2)Yes there is proof which system is more powerful, just read my signature. Seems many developers have recieved dev kits of both systems and form multiple devlopers have already stated that the PS3 is far superior hardware wise then the x-Box2.

[siren]

Wow, do you have any facts to backup those statements?

Microsoft has never said that the only reason they lost this generation was because of Sony releasing early.

Contrary, that is one of many reasons.

1) Sony released 2 years ealier in Japan and 1 year in US
2) Sony had more games
3) Microsoft had to fight it's own image to get gamers to buy the system
4) Sony had an established brand name that was very strong. They were a sure bet. Xbox wasn't. (In gamers and developers eyes)
5) They didn't cover all genre's really well, in particular platforming and RPG's


It's not that Microsoft "know's they can't compete". Microsoft planned this release in large part on when they expected the PS3 to release. They wanted to release at roughly the same time. The thing is, they are not going to follow Sony's hokey release schedule.

So, they want to release around Sony. Being that they want to treat all major territories fairly you end up with the following.

Release at same time as Sony in 06. So release when Sony launches in Japan in Early 06, but release WW. This would completely miss a holiday season. Release just 3 - 4 months earlier allows them to catch a major selling point in the US and potentially give them a 1 year head start over Sony, while not being technologically to far behind them. (less than 1/3rd of a moore's law transition time).

Also don't be so sure about MS being guarenteed to loose Japan. I don't think they will beat Sony, but most people imply they won't break a Million units again. MS isn't a dumb company. They learned from their mistakes and in a lot of ways what they are doing with Xbox2 is focused at the Japanese market.

[cyrusmg]

Kind of funny, big ol' Microsoft, don't have the guts to release around the same time as Sony. (And the funny thing is, the place where they'll be releasing very close to the PS3, is the one market they are guaranteed to lose. )

First of all, its not about courage, business isn't about w pissing contest, it's about making money. To make money you have to use all your advantages and not just give the other guy a chance to take advantage of you. It would be stupid for MS to just sit around with a finished product and let SONY catch up to them. Like stopping in a race to let the other guy catch up so you can have a closer finish.

And why do you say MS is guaranteed to loose in Japan?

What sort of information have you seen that would indicate this? From what i have seen MS has hired some real genius developers for games that Japan traditionally likes to try and provide those games. Siren has said they specifically used a Japanease company to help design the casing to be more aesthetically pleasing. And the rumours about removabel storage device that could take infor/music or something with you sound like tech that the Japanease would really adopt.

Instal base?

Both consoles have an installed base of zero. Sony has some fans, and MS has fewer than Sony, that is true. But BOTH consoles have not sold any yet. You cannot say that just because the PS3 has a huge instal base that PS3 will do well. This just isn't true. All the instal base tells us is what MS has to over come, and what Sony has to live up to.

EDIT: Wow, all these other responses came up while i was writing mine, thats a lot of resposnes REALLY quick

[Chaotic_King]

OK here you are wrong. Microsoft may not have dominated the market had it come out at the same time but for a fact its sales numbers would have been much higher and ps2 much lower because of the competition. I guarantee that there is going to be a lot of people with an xbox 2 and a ps3 simply because they want to get their hands on next gen consoles NOW!

Thats just smart marketing buddy, guts has nothing to do with it.

Had the Xbox been released near the same time as the PS2, it would not be as powerful as it is now, and Microsoft, for all we know, could have gotten an even bigger spanking. Remember, their lifeline would not have been ready yet. (Halo) I know it's somewhat good marketing, but I see it as desperation.

Wow, do you have any facts to backup those statements?

Microsoft has never said that the only reason they lost this generation was because of Sony releasing early.

Contrary, that is one of many reasons.

1) Sony released 2 years ealier in Japan and 1 year in US
2) Sony had more games
3) Microsoft had to fight it's own image to get gamers to buy the system
4) Sony had an established brand name that was very strong. They were a sure bet. Xbox wasn't. (In gamers and developers eyes)
5) They didn't cover all genre's really well, in particular platforming and RPG's

I didn't say "lose" I said dominated. Oh, face it, look at the sales, Sony raped both Microsoft and Nintendo. There were other reasons, but Microsoft said that Sony would not have such a big lead had they not have a big lead.

1) Big deal, the Xbox would have done worse had it released the same time as the PS2 in Japan, no DOA.
2) That's nice.
3) ...You mean, like Sega and Sony both did?
4) They didn't with the PS, yet they still dominated.
5) That sounds like a person problem. Which is exactly why I think Sony is once again going to trounce the competition. Sony covers all their bases.

It's not that Microsoft "know's they can't compete". Microsoft planned this release in large part on when they expected the PS3 to release. They wanted to release at roughly the same time. The thing is, they are not going to follow Sony's hokey release schedule.

So, they want to release around Sony. Being that they want to treat all major territories fairly you end up with the following.

Release at same time as Sony in 06. So release when Sony launches in Japan in Early 06, but release WW. This would completely miss a holiday season. Release just 3 - 4 months earlier allows them to catch a major selling point in the US and potentially give them a 1 year head start over Sony, while not being technologically to far behind them. (less than 1/3rd of a moore's law transition time).

Oh, come on. Microsoft does know, that if they released their next Xbox on the same day as the PS3, they would be trounced. Releasing early was their only chance.

Also don't be so sure about MS being guarenteed to loose Japan. I don't think they will beat Sony, but most people imply they won't break a Million units again. MS isn't a dumb company. They learned from their mistakes and in a lot of ways what they are doing with Xbox2 is focused at the Japanese market.

That's your opinion. In mine, yes they are.

A) Release in Japan, at a higher cost than the most popular console in Japan.
B) Have little games that appeal to the Japanese market.
C) Release some of the crappiest titles in Japan.


Microsoft is guaranteed to lose in Japan. They are going to be using the brand name of one of the least successful consoles released in Japan. Couple that with the fact that they've already announced they won't be releasing before 2006 in Japan, which will be just at the time Sony's releasing, and we can't forget Nintendo. Yes, I'll say it's guaranteed Microsoft won't compete with either Nintendo or Sony in Japan. Will they break a million? Possibly.

First of all, its not about courage, business isn't about w pissing contest, it's about making money. To make money you have to use all your advantages and not just give the other guy a chance to take advantage of you. It would be stupid for MS to just sit around with a finished product and let SONY catch up to them. Like stopping in a race to let the other guy catch up so you can have a closer finish.

I never said it wasn't smart business, but I do say it makes them look desperate. I'm not the only one, even Nintendo has gone on and bashed Microsoft for ushering the next generation so quickly. The Xbox isn't even 4 years old.

And why do you say MS is guaranteed to loose in Japan?

What sort of information have you seen that would indicate this? From what i have seen MS has hired some real genius developers for games that Japan traditionally likes to try and provide those games. Siren has said they specifically used a Japanease company to help design the casing to be more aesthetically pleasing. And the rumours about removabel storage device that could take infor/music or something with you sound like tech that the Japanease would really adopt.

I'm basing this on what I currently see.

http://game-science.com/news/001033.html

platform this week last week 2005 total
1 PlayStation 2 44,378 38,954 476,469
2 PSP 41,867 38,314 442,536
3 Nintendo DS 26,761 22,363 354,803
4 GameBoy Advance SP 11,124 10,849 159,850
5 GameCube 3,351 3,256 58,779
6 Gameboy Advance 341 399 4,762
7 Xbox 245 295 3,840


The PSP, released with less titles than the Xbox has in Japan, has surpassed the Xbox's total hardware sales in ~3 months. The PlayStation name is incredible in Japan. It's everywhere, even in Anime. (Bleach) They will also be releasing in Sony and Nintendo's hometown, around the same time that both will be releasing. Both Nintendo and Sony have several titles that are big on their respected platforms. Microsoft doesn't have one. Their RPGs with MistWalker? It will push sales, but not all that much. I will be surprised if the sales for either one surpass 500k.

Instal base?

Both consoles have an installed base of zero. Sony has some fans, and MS has fewer than Sony, that is true. But BOTH consoles have not sold any yet. You cannot say that just because the PS3 has a huge instal base that PS3 will do well. This just isn't true. All the instal base tells us is what MS has to over come, and what Sony has to live up to.

EDIT: Wow, all these other responses came up while i was writing mine, thats a lot of resposnes REALLY quick

I will make you a bet, right now, that Sony has much, much more Japanese support than Microsoft. That's what counts. Sony has plenty of fans, Microsoft doesn't have nearly as much as Sony. Sony also has the two best selling titles in Japan, Final Fantasy, and Dragon Quest. (Nintendo has some as well, Pokemon, Mario, etc. etc. )

( Microsoft can't design their own console, so they have to outsource the design to another company? )

But fine, to satisfy you Xfans, the Xbox 2 is going to sell bajillions! Leaving Sony in the dust.

[siren]

First a little history. It took Sony over 2 years to get 2 Million playstations sold with their first system. By comparison MS has had a great acheivement. The PS also released against the Saturn just after Sega had angered most of its strongest install base with the SegaCD and 32X. Then the N64 came out with cartridges. Yet it still took 2 years to sell 2 Million systems.

By comparison, MS released against a console that hadn't ticked off their users and for the most part was extremely well built and had no obvious flaws.

These are not apple to apple scenarios. Just because Sony took the market doesn't mean that MS wouldn't have under the same circumstances.

If Xbox released at the same time as the PS2, it only could have done better. My reasoning for this is that they would have had an extra 2 years on the market to build up installed base and 2 years less time for Sony to do so. Also, while the Xbox wouldn't of had Halo done in time for launch, they may have been able to get more developers on board because the PS2 wouldn't of had time to establish a base so it was a zero sum game.

4x sales isn't exactly "raped" if you take into account factors like the Xbox is now nearly matching their sales 1:1 in the worlds largest territory.

Also consider that MS has been at tighter odds and turned everything around in less than 5 years. A great example was Palm vs WinCE. MS made a device that was easier to develop for among other things. But it was also priced significantly higher. They were up against Palm which owned 95% of the market, while CE 3.0 barely took 1%. Palm had all the applications and all the users. Yet, MS is now winning in the market with about 60% market share just 4 years since the release of WinCE 4.0. They took the market slow but share, then by the time next generation handheld computers really started to come out, MS took over.

Sony didn't have very strong negative connotations against their name. I still see people post on various forums that they love the Xbox but won't get one because they hate MS. This is very hard to overcome. On the contrary, Sony had tons of people that loved their AV equipement and TVs prior to the release of the PS.

Sony didn't cover their bases at the PS launch either. They didn't get a big name RPG for over 2 years. When they finally did that is part of what helped them take off. Will the "Mistwalker Studio" games have this impact for Xbox2? Too early to tell.

Look back at old comments. MS's plan was to release at the same time as the PS3. MS is not afraid of competition, they just relish in destroying it (just like Sony would love nothing more than to have the PS3 destroy the need for PCs). Head on if need be.

Xbox released in Japan at the same price point that the PS2 was being sold at. The only territory they didn't was EU. They fixed that in 2 weeks time and gave over 150$'s worth of merchandise to launch purchasers as an appology.

Even selling 1 Million units in Japan is major competition. Consider that this would be over 3% marketshare. Believe me when I say that neither Sony nor Nintendo would like to see MS hit 1 Million next generation. That means that they are gaining. There is a point of market share usually around 10% when most consumers will start to give you credit. It is the point when enough consumers of the product like it that word of mouth starts to really spread. Usually if a company can break 10% they can get up to at least 25% within a couple of years.

So in other words, if MS can sell about 3 Million systems, it is a slow jump for the next couple million. This will also make them more viable to put non-hit games on in Japan. This could lead to smaller studios looking at them as an oppertunity to make money where no one else is.

Nintendo is saying that because they don't like to move fast in general. Seriously, you are talking about the company that had the GBA ready to ship for 2 years but delayed it because the GB Color was selling to well. No one outside of Sony and Nintendo is saying MS is rushing. None of the developers have complained. Fans of the Xbox in general are happy to see a new system coming out that will give them a better experience.

Seriously though, what's the alternatives

1) Come out 1 year after Sony does and lose first mover advantage again
2) Come out at the same time as Sony and Mis the oppertunity to grab a bonus holiday release in the largest territory (US) over Sony by just a couple of months.

I hope you don't work at my current employer in a decision making process. Not wanting to take an edge on your main competitior that is wide open...

You are really underestimating the selling potential of marketing that includes things like "From the Creator of Final Fantasy comes...." While they don't have Final Fantasy, that is the next best thing and can cause the games to sell and the console to sell.

While Sony has a ton more Japanese support than MS and will continue to next generation, MS has taken most of the US support and European support already. While Japanese games do sell quite well even in the US and Europe, they are far from everything.

MS designed the console and they did have an impact on the design of the shell. Once again, I wouldn't want you running anything at a company I work for if you can't understand the benefit of oursourcing work which your own company just frankly isn't good at.

Would you rather Sony design all of their development tools internally? Would you use the same argument about Sony for having utilized IBM's and nVidia's expertise for some graphics level development tools?

One last note

READ THE FORUM RULES AND DON'T USE ANY "FANBOY" TERMINOLOGY ON THESE FORUMS!

[Epsilon-Zero]

*claps for siren*

yah nintendo is pretty stingy when it comes to new consoles. it took them what 7-8 years for them to release the SNES? anouther 5 or 6 for the N64? maybe that kind of timescale worked back then but games seem to be getting better and better faster than ever before. Back in the 80s a video game console was the best gaming system available. The PC games market is bigger than it ever was back in the early 80s or 90s and now its also something for a console to compete with.

gaming technology just moves faster now and i dont think nintendo udnerstands that.

[Chaotic_King]

First a little history. It took Sony over 2 years to get 2 Million playstations sold with their first system. By comparison MS has had a great acheivement. The PS also released against the Saturn just after Sega had angered most of its strongest install base with the SegaCD and 32X. Then the N64 came out with cartridges. Yet it still took 2 years to sell 2 Million systems.

By comparison, MS released against a console that hadn't ticked off their users and for the most part was extremely well built and had no obvious flaws.

•Global sales of PlayStation hit 3.4 million units with 518 000 of those units sold through in Europe

http://www.pburg.k12.nj.us/pms/gt/video3/pshistory.html

Now this was in January of 1996, and the PS was released in December of 1994. That's not 2 million units in 2 years.

These are not apple to apple scenarios. Just because Sony took the market doesn't mean that MS wouldn't have under the same circumstances.

Sony, with their first console, became market leader.
Microsoft, with their first console, did not.

I frankly don't care how or when it happens, I'm speaking broadly.

If Xbox released at the same time as the PS2, it only could have done better. My reasoning for this is that they would have had an extra 2 years on the market to build up installed base and 2 years less time for Sony to do so. Also, while the Xbox wouldn't of had Halo done in time for launch, they may have been able to get more developers on board because the PS2 wouldn't of had time to establish a base so it was a zero sum game.

The developers would still show the Xbox less love than the PS2. The PS2 is the successor to the best selling console of all time. Microsoft would not have had Halo, which, could be debated, is one of the major reasons the Xbox didn't flop. They would not have had Dead or Alive, nor would they have had anything else. The Xbox could possibly not even be the most powerful console if it was released at the same time as the PS2.

4x sales isn't exactly "raped" if you take into account factors like the Xbox is now nearly matching their sales 1:1 in the worlds largest territory.

January 2005
PS2: 488,000
Xbox: 241,000
Cube: 114,000

January NPD. How about we take into account that in one week, the PS2 outsold the Xbox's total sales so far in Japan, one of the largest markets, this year?

Also consider that MS has been at tighter odds and turned everything around in less than 5 years. A great example was Palm vs WinCE. MS made a device that was easier to develop for among other things. But it was also priced significantly higher. They were up against Palm which owned 95% of the market, while CE 3.0 barely took 1%. Palm had all the applications and all the users. Yet, MS is now winning in the market with about 60% market share just 4 years since the release of WinCE 4.0. They took the market slow but share, then by the time next generation handheld computers really started to come out, MS took over.

Has nothing to do with the video game market. Sony was the name in Portable Audio for about 20 years, and look at them now. So should we say that they'll have the same success they had with the Walkman with the PlayStation brand?

Sony didn't have very strong negative connotations against their name. I still see people post on various forums that they love the Xbox but won't get one because they hate MS. This is very hard to overcome. On the contrary, Sony had tons of people that loved their AV equipement and TVs prior to the release of the PS.

Another personal problem. Don't blame Sony that they are not hated as much as Microsoft.

Sony didn't cover their bases at the PS launch either. They didn't get a big name RPG for over 2 years. When they finally did that is part of what helped them take off. Will the "Mistwalker Studio" games have this impact for Xbox2? Too early to tell.

I'm talking about now. With the PS2, it's hard to not find at least one game that does not appeal to you. With the Xbox, it's quite easy.

Look back at old comments. MS's plan was to release at the same time as the PS3. MS is not afraid of competition, they just relish in destroying it (just like Sony would love nothing more than to have the PS3 destroy the need for PCs). Head on if need be.

Microsoft is afraid of the juggernaut that is the PlayStation brand.

Xbox released in Japan at the same price point that the PS2 was being sold at. The only territory they didn't was EU. They fixed that in 2 weeks time and gave over 150$'s worth of merchandise to launch purchasers as an appology.

You worked with Microsoft? Yet you don't know that the Xbox was released at a higher price than the PS2 and GCN were being sold at?

The Xbox retails in Japan at around 34,800 yen ($263), more expensive than the Sony PlayStation 2 and Nintendo GameCube -- a high price point that may be hard to justify for non-hardcore gamers.

http://archives.cnn.com/2002/BUSINES...10/japan.xbox/

Even selling 1 Million units in Japan is major competition. Consider that this would be over 3% marketshare. Believe me when I say that neither Sony nor Nintendo would like to see MS hit 1 Million next generation. That means that they are gaining. There is a point of market share usually around 10% when most consumers will start to give you credit. It is the point when enough consumers of the product like it that word of mouth starts to really spread. Usually if a company can break 10% they can get up to at least 25% within a couple of years.

So in other words, if MS can sell about 3 Million systems, it is a slow jump for the next couple million. This will also make them more viable to put non-hit games on in Japan. This could lead to smaller studios looking at them as an oppertunity to make money where no one else is.

Keep telling yourself that. The Gamecube, a Nintendo console, is almost at 4 million units sold in Japan. The Gamecube has plenty of support in Japan, more than the Xenon is likely going to get. Now you're telling me that Microsoft and the Xenon (the gaijin) is going to sell this well?

Nintendo is saying that because they don't like to move fast in general. Seriously, you are talking about the company that had the GBA ready to ship for 2 years but delayed it because the GB Color was selling to well. No one outside of Sony and Nintendo is saying MS is rushing. None of the developers have complained. Fans of the Xbox in general are happy to see a new system coming out that will give them a better experience.

Nintendo is right. There is no reason to rush the Xbox's life so quickly. What, is the Xbox 3 coming out 2 years after the launch of Xbox 2? Nintendo doesn't like to move fast, alright, but in this case, they are right. The current consoles have plenty of life in them. No reason to rush to the next ones, because you're not happy not having another monopoly.

Seriously though, what's the alternatives

1) Come out 1 year after Sony does and lose first mover advantage again
2) Come out at the same time as Sony and Mis the oppertunity to grab a bonus holiday release in the largest territory (US) over Sony by just a couple of months.

I thought that you're not allowed to speak about the Xbox 2, so wouldn't revealing that it's coming out this year, get you in big trouble?

I hope you don't work at my current employer in a decision making process. Not wanting to take an edge on your main competitior that is wide open...

I'm not saying it's a bad move, I said it's a good one, all I'm saying is, it makes Microsoft look very desperate.

You are really underestimating the selling potential of marketing that includes things like "From the Creator of Final Fantasy comes...." While they don't have Final Fantasy, that is the next best thing and can cause the games to sell and the console to sell.

I'm not underestimating it. Phantom Dust was made by the person behind Panzer Dragon Saga, arguably, the best Panzer, and game ever. Yet it bombed. These RPGs, will be appearing on the (almost definitely) last place console in Japan. I doubt it's going to help much. (Didn't help the Final Fantasy movie)

While Sony has a ton more Japanese support than MS and will continue to next generation, MS has taken most of the US support and European support already. While Japanese games do sell quite well even in the US and Europe, they are far from everything.

Aren't you jumping the gun here? If, the PS3 is easy to develop for, and it's the most powerful console in the market, you're saying that it won't get a lot of Microsoft's support? (As in, the PC devs, who don't port their games onto the PS2 because it simply couldn't handle it?)

MS designed the console and they did have an impact on the design of the shell. Once again, I wouldn't want you running anything at a company I work for if you can't understand the benefit of oursourcing work which your own company just frankly isn't good at.

Would you rather Sony design all of their development tools internally? Would you use the same argument about Sony for having utilized IBM's and nVidia's expertise for some graphics level development tools?

Sony going for help with designing their own tools, is not the same as them going to Matsushita or Philips, because they don't know how to design a console that looks good aesthetically.

One last note

READ THE FORUM RULES AND DON'T USE ANY "FANBOY" TERMINOLOGY ON THESE FORUMS!

I never used the fanboy terminology. I said "fans". Are you saying you are not a fan of the Xbox? I'll easily say I'm a Sony fan.

[DezNutz]

Wow great conversation going on here. I am sure Epsilon Zero will give you claps as well chatoic for that well informed detialed post?

Any good mod would love getting specific facts set straight on the board, that is unless he is biased, oh and pointing out bias errors of another mod

I just wanted to say I agre it is a good decision for microsoft to release early and first, I just think they have to becuase they are just getting beat so bad in this generation. I never said Sony won this generation becuase they released early instead they just had better and more AAA exclusive games IMO.

Do I think Microsoft will do better in Japan on next generation? Yeah sure, it would be kinda hard to do worse. Honestly though I dont think Microsoft will do as well in the states as they did this generation, I know they got a better console, but I think they are eliminating alot of their market by making it HD/online focused.

I don't think you can ignore existing console base either. Even siren has already stated just based on existing console base of PS2, PS3 should get 40 million PS3's sold even if it is a saturn type of console. There is a history of gaming and generations and they have stats that carry over to each and every generation, all these companies know all these stats, they know what they got to make up and where they alreayd have and can improve. Existing console base is a huge advantage for the PS2, and it will be for PS3.

Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.

[siren]

I have to question how many of those units were sold vs how many shipped, but yes that # more than likely is above my 2 Million units listed. I was figuring from a march 96 release in Japan.

As I pointed out above, you have to take everything into account. Failing to do so is one of the worst moves when trying to predict a winner or a race in general.

Yes Microsoft did not get first on first try. But they had a significantly better competitor in Sony than Sony had in Nintendo and Sega. As markets mature this tends to happen.

If Microsoft was taken down by Firefox over a 10 year period, would you say that it didn't matter as much as IE taking down Netscape in just 3? (btw I pulled these #'s out of no where just as an example). No, of course not, it would still be huge because in the end they won.

Of course the Xbox would still have gotten less love than the PS2. That is a given. But the fact remains that now they are getting at least equal love in the US and Europe and are building up in Japan. When Xbox came out they had maybe 30 3rd party developers on board. I remember all the names fitting on one slide at a pre-CES internal showing of the Xbox in 2000. Now they probably couldn't fit them on wall. Back with Xbox it was widely known they had to pay several studios to get them to even consider making a game on the Xbox around launch. Now developers are begging for more dev kits and MS is pumping them out as quick as they can.

Are you sure they wouldn't have had Halo or Dead or Alive? Remember that Tecmo isn't on the Xbox just because of power. They are on it in large part because of the power they can get out of it. Development tools allow this. Also, one year earlier Halo would have been as far along on Xbox as it ended up being one year later. When MS bought Bungie they had to dump out almost the entire game they had created up till that point. They had just 9 months to turn around and build a game virtually from the ground up for the Xbox. If MS had bought bungie one year ealier and released the Xbox one year ealier, they would have been in the same boat.

You just pulled one month to show sales.

2003 sales totals

PlayStation 2 - 29.26 million
Xbox - 8.6 million
GameCube - 7.46 million
Game Boy Advance - 23.78 million

2004 sales totals

North America
PlayStation 2 - 32.86 million
Xbox - 13.2 million
GameCube - 10.11 million

What does this tell you?

Xbox grew by 4.6 Million units in the US last year
PS2 grew by 3.6 Million units
GC grew by 2.6 Million units

http://forum.pcvsconsole.com/viewthread.php?tid=8498

Moving on
________________________________________

With the Palm/PocketPC comparison, what I was trying to show was that no matter how locked in a company or it's users think they are, the market can change rapidly. The are no certainties. Example, MS has postitioned a strong foot into the market now. But next generation they could lose it all.

I didn't blame Sony that they are not as hated, just gave another market reason why they were able to hold off MS. The question is if this will be as big of a factor next generation now that MS has their foot in the door.

If you are having a hard time finding games on the PS2 that do not appeal to you, then you are turning a blind eye to over 500 games. There are easily that many which do not deserve to be on the shelf from a shear qualitative perspective. When was the last time you played a robot based yaoi dating sym or it at least appealed to you?

Also, who said MS was rushing? Sony & Nintendo? Their loyal fans? I havn't seen any developers complain about this. As a matter of fact, they seem quite excited about the next generation starting already. Should MS make their business decisions based on what Sony and Nintendo tell them to do? Should they follow Sony and Nintendo's playbooks? How would they advance this generation forward if they did? How would they lead and grab new customers?

Every little bit can count when your dealing with a kind of situation like MS has in Japan. Yea they blew, no debating there. But, if the 2 Mistwalker games alone help them to break 1 Million consoles sold in Japan, that is more than double their current installed base. This will also help them on the course to increasing toward 3 Million and the breaking point to actually start drawing in mass market. They may not hit 3 Million next generation, even with these games. But the point is to keep looking toward the future and moving foward. MS has been making smartphones for over 6 years now. Yet just last year they broke 3% of the market. This is up from 1% the year before and 0% the year before that. Should they have given up because they weren't selling 2 years ago?

PC developers didn't come to the Xbox because the PS2 couldn't handle the games. The Xbox can't handle most PC games. They came to the system because it was actually reasonable to develop for.

[Epsilon-Zero]

He only made 2 errors and what he said was pretty close to the actual.

you can nitpick what he said or disbelieve all you want but the overall majority of it was the truth. MS is still gaining ground whether you like it or not and will continue to in the next generation. I cant imagine why you would want it to fail with nintendo in last place in the NA and EU. It would be more beneficial to gaming for them to share an equal market.
All those that i know who own an xbox are very satisfied with it and will more than likely buy the next.

[muchuukuri]

Ahem... hello... how are we all today? Good to hear. I just played DMC3... I am giddy. Yay!

Now, moving on...

If Microsoft was taken down by Firefox over a 10 year period, would you say that it didn't matter as much as IE taking down Netscape in just 3? (btw I pulled these #'s out of no where just as an example). No, of course not, it would still be huge because in the end they won.

A HORRID comparison... M$ forcefully built IE into Windows and more over the only way to get updates is THROUGH IE... this solidfies its necessity in the market... if firefox were to become the winner, it would be 100x more impressive.

I didn't blame Sony that they are not as hated, just gave another market reason why they were able to hold off MS. The question is if this will be as big of a factor next generation now that MS has their foot in the door.

M$ is hated by a VERY small number of people you get a 100 windows users and ask them if the like M$'s products and 95 of them will say "yes". The truth of the matter is only the informed or I guess PS fans HATE M$. Besides, those informed people usually aren't so narrow minded... there quite of few on /. that own an Xbox. So, again, poor arguement.

Are you sure they wouldn't have had Halo or Dead or Alive? Remember that Tecmo isn't on the Xbox just because of power. They are on it in large part because of the power they can get out of it. Development tools allow this.

Itagaki SAID he works on the most powerful system... period. DC allows you to pull way more out of it easily.. and yet he dumped like a bad habit.

If you are having a hard time finding games on the PS2 that do not appeal to you, then you are turning a blind eye to over 500 games. There are easily that many which do not deserve to be on the shelf from a shear qualitative perspective. When was the last time you played a robot based yaoi dating sym or it at least appealed to you?

You're kidding me right? Do you know how popular shounen-ai and yaoi is with girls in Japan? Dude, I arguably know the Japanese Manga/Anime scene better than anyone here. H-games sell like hotcakes in Japan. They don't appeal to Americans... ok, so? FPS games ain't all that popular in Japan, so shut up. Games don't need UNIVERSAL appeal, that's just ignorance on your part. Saying they waste shelf space is YOUR opinion. Besides, mosts H-games are for the PC anyways. Only a small percentage make it to the consoles, usually when tied to some anime or popular series. Also, when was the last time you saw a Shounen-ai game on American shelves?

Also, who said MS was rushing?

... Didn't wanna do the whole thing.

You know what? Since when was gaming about the developers?? This year alone... I have 14, that FOURTEEN, games that I'm gonna buy? That's like half my current collection... this is argueably the year I have seen in gaming in the last 10 years, granted my opinion. There are tons of great games. M$ is rushing this no question. Of course, thanks to XNA though any games made for the XBox can be ported over to X2 rather easily, how convient. They're rushing... devs being excited about new hardware? NO!!! You don't say!!! I would have never guessed!! Please.

2003 sales totals

PlayStation 2 - 29.26 million
Xbox - 8.6 million
GameCube - 7.46 million
Game Boy Advance - 23.78 million

2004 sales totals

North America
PlayStation 2 - 32.86 million
Xbox - 13.2 million
GameCube - 10.11 million

What does this tell you?

PS2 saturation. Remeber you said you have to account for everything.

If Xbox released at the same time as the PS2, it only could have done better. My reasoning for this is that they would have had an extra 2 years on the market to build up installed base and 2 years less time for Sony to do so. Also, while the Xbox wouldn't of had Halo done in time for launch, they may have been able to get more developers on board because the PS2 wouldn't of had time to establish a base so it was a zero sum game.

And people wouldn't know the PS2 sucked to program for... BUT they would know that it's a system following one that sold a 100 Million. I would even NEED to think about that. Especially if M$'s hardware was weaker... but that's a what, so whatever.

Even selling 1 Million units in Japan is major competition. Consider that this would be over 3% marketshare. Believe me when I say that neither Sony nor Nintendo would like to see MS hit 1 Million next generation. That means that they are gaining. There is a point of market share usually around 10% when most consumers will start to give you credit. It is the point when enough consumers of the product like it that word of mouth starts to really spread. Usually if a company can break 10% they can get up to at least 25% within a couple of years.

Hmm... 20million PS2s, 4 million Gamecubes, and 2 million Xboxes... 26 million total. 2/26... about 7.5% of the market share... not 3%... I'd argue even with this its still a lake's leap to get any cred.

You are really underestimating the selling potential of marketing that includes things like "From the Creator of Final Fantasy comes...." While they don't have Final Fantasy, that is the next best thing and can cause the games to sell and the console to sell.

And you sir are overestimating Sakaguchi's cred... that garbage may fly in the US where the average joe is ignorant about RPGs, but I'm willing to wager not that many would be impressed in Japan... nor the US hardcore RPGers. Granted there is a small faction... and we are talk SMALL... that like the old SNES FFs more... but half the time its because of nastalgia.

Would you rather Sony design all of their development tools internally? Would you use the same argument about Sony for having utilized IBM's and nVidia's expertise for some graphics level development tools?

How is open GL internal? How is COLLADA internal? No one's backing it. Your evidence please? From what I've seen of the backers list between M$ and Sony the difference is 2 companies. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Sony didn't cover their bases at the PS launch either. They didn't get a big name RPG for over 2 years. When they finally did that is part of what helped them take off. Will the "Mistwalker Studio" games have this impact for Xbox2? Too early to tell.

Ahem... Suikoden, Tales of Phantasia, Wild ARMs, Breath of Fire 3, Persona, Vandal Hearts, Blood Omen: Legacy of Kain (threw in a US game for measure)... all released in US before 1998. Also, your conception of big is VERY different from someone who plays RPGs... FF IS big... but it ain't the only big one.

Siren, lay off kool-aid, man. ^^ Yes, I'm mean. I apologize.

Kind of funny, big ol' Microsoft, don't have the guts to release around the same time as Sony.

M$ is a business company... they wanna make money if this adds another bullet to the revolver they've got aimed at Sony, so be it. Does this make them EVIL? I would argue no... they were evil to begin with. No no no, seriously, while I do think M$ is evil, they're just doing what any other business would... get a jump on the competition. Though, I do honestly feel that they're pushing the next-gen too quickly.

That's your opinion. In mine, yes they are.

A) Release in Japan, at a higher cost than the most popular console in Japan.
B) Have little games that appeal to the Japanese market.
C) Release some of the crappiest titles in Japan.

Supid?? OH heck NO! Evil... mmm... maybe. Hehe, I'm sorry, I just have issues. Really though, (A) was fixed as Siren said. (B) wasn't really up to them... I mean how many titles can a first party make? Assuming thet tried to please the Japanese market. (C) Na?? DOA3, Ninja Gaiden, Otogi, and... well, I think that was all the exclusives at the earlier stages... but those are good games... I don't really know of any bad Japanese Dev. Xbox exclusive games... granted there only, like, 15 but none the less.

I thought that you're not allowed to speak about the Xbox 2, so wouldn't revealing that it's coming out this year, get you in big trouble?

Pot-shot. Siren, was just making an example, not leaking anything in particular, though I wish he would!!!! *eyes Siren angrily*

I'm not underestimating it. Phantom Dust was made by the person behind Panzer Dragon Saga, arguably, the best Panzer, and game ever. Yet it bombed. These RPGs, will be appearing on the (almost definitely) last place console in Japan. I doubt it's going to help much. (Didn't help the Final Fantasy movie)

Well, said... oddly enough phantom dusk seems to be getting resurrected and with much love. Though, I don't understand the Spirits within analogy... seems nonsensical to me... I think I may be missing the point with this one.

Sony going for help with designing their own tools, is not the same as them going to Matsushita or Philips, because they don't know how to design a console that looks good aesthetically.

I'd say it is... Sony KNOWS how to make their stuff SEXY!! M$... heh, if you ever wanted to M$ stupid about something... hehehe... style would be it. From windows all the way to the Media Center M$ just looks stupid. Knowing your strengths is very important and asking for help when you know you need is just as important. Look what happened when Sony tried to do the middleware for the PS2 themselves? I'm glad M$ outsourced when the built the Xbox. If anything I WISH they had remembered this for the X2... some of the design choices scream real trouble to me the single bus through which everything runs... expect horrifing stalls... the scant 10MB eDRAM of chip... and yet and its ALL about the HD... there's some weird choices... granted I don't have the whole picture, but these don't bold well no matter how you slice it.

o put it in "Lamence Terms" IMO The Xbox2 will have a Lead in the graphics area, while the PS3 will have a Lead in the Speed and Processor area. For instance, Xbox2 has amazing graphics and a half decent processor, while the PS3 has some nice graphics(Half-decent) and unbelieveable speeds for the processor.

Uh... when you say speed... you mean the general concept of more power right? Like the XBox can be more fully utilized than the PS2, so while its weaker it seems more powerful??? I think that's what you meant, right? 'Cause a PS2's frquency is 300MHZ while Xbox's is 733MHZ. Also, did you mean "Layman's terms"? Sorry, if I'm missing it.

gaming technology just moves faster now and i dont think nintendo udnerstands that.

Umm... EpZ... I think you're forgetting the point of a console. Buy one, last you a bunch a years, and all with no fuss or muss or really any thinking. If consoles are gonna keep coming out faster and faster.. just buy a PC and end it. Seriously, paying 300 dollars everyother year is stupid... you could just get a PC and upgrade it at those numbers. Consoles are supposed to be the alternative to that garbage, not to call a PC garbage, but the constant upgrading thing kinda is.




Well, now that I've comment my fills worth on Siren and Chaotic... its so easy to criticize when you haven't said a thing... yes I am an #$%. I just haevn't said anything for a while so I got itchy to talk... my apologies you two. Anyway, I'll give my take on this.

1) Yes, coming out first really is that important. It give you head way to steal the common mass consumers away from your competitors. The hardcore won't be won over this way though, since most of them are set or planning to wait and compare. The generic "gamer" will prolly be swayed to buy it as well as the earlier release means earlier next gen gaming... this is assuming there are games worth playing. Of course, all this can be offset by Hype, much like with the DC, or by a boneheaded move on the company's part, Nintendo's failure to adopt CD tech.

2) NO, absa-posativa-lutely NO. Sony has said the CELL can pull 256GFLOPs and Alard of M$ has said X2 can do a teraFLOP (1000GFLOPs). But he's talking out his butt. Not that Sony's on the up-and-ap either. Though I am willing to believe the 256GFLOPs, since I've read almost all the literature and data available and almost every else who has agrees that the number are pretty much spot on. BUT you have to remember, the numbers are THEORTICAL. Also, we have NO idea about the configuration of the CELL(s) we'll see in the PS3. Alard's comment is just stupid... he threw it out there like it was nothing and then said "targeted performance"... that's M$'s backdoor out. Until I see some REAL numbers that back that claim, he's talking out his butt. From my claculations... and I'm not expert, but I'm no moron either... the 3 PPC cores on the X2 should generate more than a theoretical 90GFLOPs... 1000-90 = 910. The GPU is gonna push 910GFLOPs?? That would make it the most powerful processor in existence. The current reigning champ comes in at around 500GFLOPs if memory serves me... and it costs 10s of thousands of dollars. Now, I should point out we know ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about either GPU for the systems. To sum it up... we know nothing. Unless a SUPER information leaks occurs, hold on till E3. Sorry, man.


As to the arguement about which will win? Look shoulda, coulda, woulda and gimme-gimme never gets. The Xbox came out a year later, the PS was an established brand... that don't change the reality. PS2 has the biggest and best library, the most recognizable name, the most sold units, and the most support out of all the systems, period. They've got Monopoly power much like M$ has Monopoly power in OSes... though I'd argue they have it due to dirty tactics, but I'm a slashdotter, so ignore me... What does that mean? Sony only needs to flash a shot of the PS3 to twist people's heads, M$ has to convince people that they are better in EVERY way. Better games, better hardware, better online, better experience, better price! Sony right out of the bat has the market hot words Blu-ray and CELL. Think about it, the average consumer hears powered by the CELL... they go wow, fancy new age space tech stuff.. the name CELLS (^^) Then there's Blu-ray... TRUE HD, they'll say. M$? Hey we can do Hd too. On our ... DVD drive... hey where you going?? New fangled gadgets get your attention. Graphics? If Sony's got the power they just need to flash the perly whites and boom. Hmm... maybe I'll wait. However, if M$ has the gusto then a big shift could occur. There's also the wow factor that comes with a new gen, but like I said if Sony's got the goods then they just need a little tease to crumble the M$ walls. Games? Unless M$ has serious shiz lined up, they ain't got a chance in heaven... honestly, I think M$ is being absolutely moronic in not releasing more Japanese developer names. They don't have to say the title they're working on. Just the developer. It's the ONLY way to build the confidence of Japan and Japanese game gamers in the US. 5 developers 3 of which haven't been heavy in development in years ( Sakaguchi and his 2 comrades haven't done any RPGs for a while) and that ain't brimming me with confidence. M$ not releasing any other devs. only make me and others suspect that those 5 plus a half-hearted SEGA and Tecmo are ALL they got. I'm talking exclusives here, in which case you may not be able to count Okamoto or Mizuguch... I'm not sure on that though. Interent? Oh, now HERE M$ HAS the upper-hand... and if you saw the conference at GDC, you know they're pushing it. This could be M$'s piked battering ram. If they can convince gamers that online is the way to be then they may have it locked up. The negative, yes yes... obviously I'm rooting for Sony, if you haven't guessed, is that not everyone cares about online. To ME, remember me, the Market place looks like nothing more a cash cow... and that seriously worries me. The gamer cred.. who gives a rat's and the same goes for the trophy bragging rights junk. Then there's the pop message stuff... that's exactly what I want when I'm fighting a tough boss... or when I'm in a match with my friend online... my screen freezes his doesn't WOOHOO!! Now, hopefully M$ has these things covered someway, so that may not be the case. None the less, while I may have issues, many are already psyched over it so it could go over really well. The way I see it... M$ has time and online on their side... that's it... if things work out they'll also have graphics... but I'm gonna hold off on that one, especially when the Sony hype machine kicks in and makes everyone go... hold on a sec... hmmm. M$ is the one who has to come out and break the molds all over again... they couldn't do it the first time... I question if they can this time. That's my take.

You deserve a cookie for reading this far. I don't have any though, but you deserve one. Thanks, for humoring me and sorry about the long read. Ah, wait.

Present: New Zelda Trailer... Mmmm... better than cookie...

http://media.cube.ign.com/media/572/572738/vids_1.html

[siren]

Wow, nice post Much, very impressed. Keep up the good work, just use paragraphs a bit more.

The Firefox/IE comparison was completely bogus, I probably should have used a bogus example that didn't use 2 products people feel very strongly about.

Trust me when I say I fully understand the Shonen-Ai and Yaoi are very popular. Most americans I know would find the games repulsive at best. I was just using an extreme example of a video game to try to point out that not every game for every system will appeal to everyone. Also, not every game on every system is good. Usually its about 20%/80%. People like about 20% of the games and would like to buy them, or would consider buying them. The other 80% don't even catch their eye.

On a side note, I do wish there was a way for Bandai to bring over the Super Robot Wars series for us US gamers.

Yes the PS2 is very close to saturation, but about 12 Million units off of it as of yet (at least compared to the original playstation). This also isn't taking into account market growth (or decline in Japan) over the past 5 years.

Yes sales is a big point. But, consider the following. If it takes you twice as much man power to develop a game on one system vs another, the question is if the increased market share is worth it. Remember that even though the PS2 has 4x the market share, not all of them are interested in the same games. The Xbox's market share is really strong in the FPS realm. One could argue that as a result a FPS may sell better on Xbox's limited fan base than on PS2's larger fan base.

Likewise, one could argue that the Xbox's fanbase is weak on RPG's. Thus why even both making one for the system.

Yes they have a ton of work and market share to grab to get true credibility in Japan. They know this and are not giving up. If anything most of what they are doing with Xbox2 is focused at the Japanese Market where they were extremely weak this past generation.

As for the pausing when the alert came up at GDC. If you actually watch the video, the pausing was them pausing it not the alert. Later on a alert came up for only about 2 - 3 seconds. They had to pause it so that developers could see the alert and so he could talk about all the examples of alerts you could receive. The alert did not pause the game and my understanding is they will not do so.

Also the console is all about customization. If you don't want alerts, turn them off. If you only want some alerts, only have them on. You have the power over your console.

[Epsilon-Zero]

Umm... EpZ... I think you're forgetting the point of a console. Buy one, last you a bunch a years, and all with no fuss or muss or really any thinking. If consoles are gonna keep coming out faster and faster.. just buy a PC and end it. Seriously, paying 300 dollars everyother year is stupid... you could just get a PC and upgrade it at those numbers. Consoles are supposed to be the alternative to that garbage, not to call a PC garbage, but the constant upgrading thing kinda is.

I have not forgotten the point of a console i just think Nintendo has forgotten that they dont live in the 80s anymore where a console can last for nearly a decade.
Maybe if console developers could make a console that is 2 generations ahead of its time we would see lifespans like that again. The Market is just vastly different than it was in the past, with more competition.

I dont see spending $300 every 3-5 years as that bad. A new PC gets about 4 years life out of it before it has to be replaced to play new games. I replace my PCs about every 2 years. Its alot cheaper to buy a new console than upgrading to a new PC and right out of the box it plays games that are at its current level.

[muchuukuri]

Ah, sorry about the non-paragraph form... it was a lot to write and my languages skill quickly deteriorate the more I have to do.

On a side note, I do wish there was a way for Bandai to bring over the Super Robot Wars series for us US gamers.

^______^ Siren points go UP! Haha, yeah, there are a ton of great games out there that just never see the light of US shores. This is part of the reason I'm so desperate for the dropping of region encoding. Videogaming, in my opinion, can only gain from it overall... I know they'll be gaining from me at the very least.

I'd agree again. If you make games that appeal more to your target audience then of course they're going to sell well. FPS games I think are a perfect example of that, however, that's what you call niche gaming... a successful system can't rely solely on one genre to define itself. Often we talk about how its PS2 and RPGs vs XBox and FPSs, but the thing is there's a great deal more going on in terms of gaming library. And, while it makes sense not to make games that arguably don't appeal to the fanbase, as you said with RPGs, it just reinforces that niche gaming concept. Honestly, thinking about it this way, Sakaguchi's pledged RPGs hold even more, whether or not they're good, M$ has said, by doing this, it CAN be more than a niche system and it isn't! Also, I should say I don't really think the Xbox is a niche system, but from a sales and 'buzz worthy" titles perspective the system certainly has the air niche gaming.

You make a very good point, will sales over shadow the cost development or not? Something all companies think about before diving in. This is part of the reason why I think the PS2 is still holding so strong in Japan. Most, especially newbie companies, aren't going to call in an analyst to give them an idea of how their product will sell and dev to sale ratio and so on... most just go, "hey, there's more ptential for sales on the PS2" besides its not like they're restricted to time schedules and that sort of stuff when they're new.. they work out of their basements, and when they've got something they show it to a licenser. This definately, though, works for big companies who can and do analyze the market, and I'd argue that in Japan sales outweigh dev costs. In the US? I'd argue that's a very very different stroy. Europe? Well, much like the country itself there's a pretty good balance of different taste and influences, so you see a lot of pan-platform games, ubi-soft being a great example.

As to X2 focusing on the Japanese market... see that's the problem I don't see a thing that tells me that. As I said, 5 developers only makes me suspicious and far from confident. And while all the live features may be a hit in S. Korea, I don't think they'll go over that big elsewhere. M$ needs to make me go "HOLY BLEEP", you know? For instance, saying DMC 4 is gonna be on X2. That would make me turn my head 180 degrees, and that's what they need to do. Hopefully, they'll wow me at E3, but... I dunno, if all I see is a DOA or SEGA's condemned or maybe something from one of the others that we've heard I'm not gonna switch over and buy an X2.

Ah, that you can turn off those options and that they won't interfere makes me feel much more at ease about the system. My bad about the pausing, it looked like that from my perspective. Also, when they said all games will be HD and LIVE aware it gave me the message that these option were set in stone. Glad to hear that's not the case.

[The_One]

1) Is coming out first really that important? By coming out first you hope to sell more units than the competitor, but people aren't going to switch sides just because something else comes out first.

Yes... And No. Why? Just look at Sega Dreamcast. It came out before the PS2, yet it got PWN3D (hehe, I felt like using a internet slang :P). XBox/GCube came out after the PS2, yet they got PWN3D too. See, it's not about when you release it, but HOW you release it .

2) By coming out first the next-generation XBOX will probably be weaker than the PS3, and there are already rumors that the PS3 is more powerful. My question is there any proof as of yet to determine which system is stronger?

Yeah, the fact that the PS3's CELL will crunch out 256 GFLOP/s, and the fact that 3 3Ghz PPC cores will do ~90GFLOp/s. Both GPU's are rumoured to crunch out an extra ~200GFLOp/s each. So PS3's CPU is obviously the "stronger" CPU.

Likewise, one could argue that the Xbox's fanbase is weak on RPG's. Thus why even bother making one for the system.

Well, if you don't strengthen your weakness, you'll only get weaker and your opponents will only capitalize on your weakness.
*Bold: I believe it was a typo on your part, so I added the "er"... I'm not trying to stuff words into your mouth though :P.

some of the design choices scream real trouble to me the single bus through which everything runs... expect horrifing stalls... the scant 10MB eDRAM of chip... and yet and its ALL about the HD... there's some weird choices... granted I don't have the whole picture, but these don't bold well no matter how you slice it.

Aye. That's another thing too. From what I've heard (a dev's perspective), that's going to create quite a bit of trouble and stalls. I'm hoping that they have this worked out, but I don't know... In general, when someone designs a hardware, they don't have the devs in mind (I mean, 32MB of eDRAM would be nice... but that's an extra 225 million transistors! I'd even choose 10MB over 32MB for simplicities sake!).

[luxurys]

Okay, here are the entries so far. We will be picking the top 6 and the winners will recieve $10 each. However, they only should recieve the money if the entries are top notch.

So here they are and I will start a poll once all entries are in:

1. http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b12/K ... wall01.jpg

2. http://www.adam.com.au/moutzouris/bluryourreality.jpg

3. http://www.adam.com.au/moutzouris/dates.jpg

4. http://www.adam.com.au/moutzouris/front.jpg

5. http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y204/s ... yfixed.jpg

6. http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a125/ ... lpaper.png

7. http://img282.imageshack.us/img282/4413 ... alllx2.jpg

8. http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/7517 ... ce2we6.jpg

9. http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/8055 ... pernr5.jpg

10. http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/3414/motorstormfw8.jpg

11. http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/3414/motorstormfw8.jpg

12. http://click2host.us/002/crysis-20060419092921692.png

13. http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e374/ ... final2.jpg

[KlawHammer]

Nah, NUM no one likes me enough to send me thier wallpapers.

[heerokenshin]

so far, im liking 1,2, 4 and 6

[luxurys]

updated

[luxurys]

Pick your favorite