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  1. #1
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    What are Sonys's plans for the PS3 post PS4 launch?

    Sony's fiscal report has just made the rounds, as has their forecast for the coming 12 months (we are already 2 months into it).

    Time for some foreboding....

    Sony expects to ship 10 million PS3 units in that time.

    That's a significant drop and points to several possible scenarios:

    1/ The launch of the PS4 is closer than we think, and Sony are adjusting PS3 sales accordingly.

    2/ There will be no price cut on the PS3, and Sony expect that people will find the PS4 a better alternative post launch.

    3/ They are just going to plain drop the PS3 post PS4 launch and stop manufacturing it.

    10 million is a number they would normally hit before Xmas (with the bulk 6 million plus at Xmas).

    This would indicate that "something" is going to make the PS3 sales all but flounder pre Xmas, and I say flounder as in in stop dead in their tracks.

    I would also immediately discount the "people know its coming theory", as it won't have that sort of public knowledge to the average consumer for sometime yet.

    So what say you?

    What are Sony going to do with the PS3?

  2. #2
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    I found that odd too. It seem like a price drop at e3 would put them at around 12m. Everyone isn't going to rush out and buy a ps4 on day 1.

    I think it's a mix of #1 and #2 and possibly some data from the ps2 sales after the ps3 released(I have no clue how well the ps2 sold after the ps3 launched - I'd have to look it up).

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    Combination of them being cautious and the inevitable slump pre-next gen. PS3 will be in that period over the next year or so after US/EU/Japan sales decline but before sales in the other regions pick up.

    I don't see them stopping production any time soon but it defo won't have as long a life as the PS2 has had.

  4. #4
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    If it is "2" and there is no price cut on the PS3, it makes me wonder where/how they are going to price the PS4.
    $399 would be the logical choice here wouldn't it? But this could point to a even cheaper price, maybe $349??

    It is it "1" then hella yeah, getting the thing out in August or September would be a massive win.

    Also could point to a Euro launch as well, no waiting till next FY for Euro fans for a change???

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    As they only jusy released the Super Slim+ No BC with PS4+ a lot of games are due out on PS3
    I don't think the PS3 is going anywhere
    I actually think it'll be the last current gen console to go out of production....may even out last the Wii U if sales don't pick up
    @lethal
    Wasn't the PS2 only at 70-80mil when PS3 arrived?
    which would mean it sold a $#@! load more

    Sent via Codec
    Last edited by TGO; 05-10-2013 at 00:01.

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  6. #6
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    Here's historical data around PS3 launch:

    FY ending (PS2/PS3)
    March 2006: (16.2)
    March 2007: (14.2/5.5)
    March 2008: (13.7/9.24)
    March 2009: (7.9/10.6)

    So they sold 14.2 down form 16.2 the year of launch. A 2 million knock back or 12 percent drop.

  7. #7
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    Sony should drop the ps3 to 99 dollars and market the hell out of both

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    Same as their plans were for the PS2 when the PS3 launched, it will continue to sell.

    .. don't really care once I switch to the PS4 I'll forget about the PS3.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mynd View Post
    If it is "2" and there is no price cut on the PS3, it makes me wonder where/how they are going to price the PS4.
    $399 would be the logical choice here wouldn't it? But this could point to a even cheaper price, maybe $349??

    It is it "1" then hella yeah, getting the thing out in August or September would be a massive win.

    Also could point to a Euro launch as well, no waiting till next FY for Euro fans for a change???
    PS4 in Aug or Sep? Doubt it. Nov at the earliest imo (anywhere - longer if we're counting here... ).

    #IndieStation4 and proud of it.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave-The-Rave View Post
    Same as their plans were for the PS2 when the PS3 launched, it will continue to sell.

    .. don't really care once I switch to the PS4 I'll forget about the PS3.
    Yeah, I assume the PS3 will continue to sell relatively steadily for people who want to game but can't afford a PS4. There will still be a few releases, either random 3rd party games that are current gen or a bunch of those cross gen games that are on ps3 and ps4.

    But I think its safe to say once the PS4 launches none of Sonys studios will be working on PS3 games. I would also assume a price drop - since that new super slim is much cheaper for them to make. But from those figures, yeah looks like the PS4 is coming out at least somewhere before christmas...

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    $149 at E3, no way can they afford a $99 one even with the 12GB version.

    We'll probably still get a few small London Studio games for it + some other PSN releases but most games will be on PS4. Persona 4 didn't release until like 2008 2 years after PS3s launch so no worries with 3rd party devs.
    Quote Originally Posted by BigDug13
    I want Naughty Dog to explore new game genres, not regurgitate cinematic corridor shooters for another generation.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cyn View Post
    Combination of them being cautious and the inevitable slump pre-next gen. PS3 will be in that period over the next year or so after US/EU/Japan sales decline but before sales in the other regions pick up.

    I don't see them stopping production any time soon but it defo won't have as long a life as the PS2 has had.
    I think it will have a longer shelf life than the PS2. Why? Look at the trend. This generation lasted longer than the previous one (one that had the PS2) and note the fact that PS2 was the king by a land-slide, PS3 is neck-to-neck with 2nd place.

    PS3 definitely has more legs than PS2 due to its online capabilities. It has an online store so even if PS3 games were in stock anymore, you can always buy them online.

    Unlike last generation, this generation we're seeing more cross-generation (not just cross-platform), cross-generation games and this should continue for another two years or maybe more.

    All of these things should give PS3 a longer life. Also the price is indicative of how long it has left. Right now it's selling good at $249-$299. It will get a boost in sales every time there's a price cut, the price cut will likely not be less than a year. So until it goes down to $129, it will chug along.

    Before it gets to $129, PS2 will need to be even lower...I don't even know what Sony is going to do with the PS2. Will it ever be $99?

    Xbox 360 is at 38 mil in US, that makes me think that there will be a point when there will be more demand for the PS3 once the 360 saturates the market or 360 owners want to finally see what the PS3 has to offer. They may just be waiting for the price to go down enough.

    I know I would buy the 360 at a cheaper price. I tried buying the arcade one at this one Amazon sales that was a disaster but I could've gotten one for $99.

    I could come up with more things but those are some things off the top of my head. Trust me, it is going to last longer than the PS2 just like the PS2 lasted longer than the PS1. That's natural as technology goes further as it starts to be more inline with what we want long-term.

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    Not to mention the PS3 was built to last and was actually the strongest hardware wise whereas PS2 was the weakest and was only really built for 6-8 years until PS3 hit.
    Quote Originally Posted by BigDug13
    I want Naughty Dog to explore new game genres, not regurgitate cinematic corridor shooters for another generation.

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    Yea I definitely felt like I was tired of the PS2 by around 2005 whereas I have just become tired of the PS3 in 2013 and definitely will keep it for another year before I buy a new console and will likely keep playing it for another two years+. Same cannot be said about the PS2. That thing was out of my house by 2006...I actually went to PC in 2006 (World of Warcraft) and went straight to PS3 lol.

    I was sick and tired of the PS2.

  16. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sufi View Post
    I think it will have a longer shelf life than the PS2. Why? Look at the trend. This generation lasted longer than the previous one (one that had the PS2) and note the fact that PS2 was the king by a land-slide, PS3 is neck-to-neck with 2nd place.

    PS3 definitely has more legs than PS2 due to its online capabilities. It has an online store so even if PS3 games were in stock anymore, you can always buy them online.

    Unlike last generation, this generation we're seeing more cross-generation (not just cross-platform), cross-generation games and this should continue for another two years or maybe more.

    All of these things should give PS3 a longer life. Also the price is indicative of how long it has left. Right now it's selling good at $249-$299. It will get a boost in sales every time there's a price cut, the price cut will likely not be less than a year. So until it goes down to $129, it will chug along.

    Before it gets to $129, PS2 will need to be even lower...I don't even know what Sony is going to do with the PS2. Will it ever be $99?

    Xbox 360 is at 38 mil in US, that makes me think that there will be a point when there will be more demand for the PS3 once the 360 saturates the market or 360 owners want to finally see what the PS3 has to offer. They may just be waiting for the price to go down enough.

    I know I would buy the 360 at a cheaper price. I tried buying the arcade one at this one Amazon sales that was a disaster but I could've gotten one for $99.

    I could come up with more things but those are some things off the top of my head. Trust me, it is going to last longer than the PS2 just like the PS2 lasted longer than the PS1. That's natural as technology goes further as it starts to be more inline with what we want long-term.
    Excellent points. (can't rep or like)

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    Can they afford a price drop? 18 million profit for the year would suggest not.
    That leaves them in an interesting position.

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    @admartian, I'll be waiting for that like once everything sorts out on your end. Btw this is not a request, consider it a threat.

    Quote Originally Posted by mynd View Post
    Can they afford a price drop? 18 million profit for the year would suggest not.
    That leaves them in an interesting position.
    Where are you getting the 18 mil? I was not able to find that.

    Either way, they can live without a price cut and we thought before too that they wouldn't be able to afford a price cut, the reality is that if they feel they will likely make more money in the end (or to keep afloat), they will go ahead with the price cut.

    That only makes sense right? They can't just go on without a price cut and then just shut down one day (I'm looking at you Sega!).

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    Maybe they got PS4 and PS3 shippings mixed up?
    10 million for PS4 would make much more sense than 20 million.
    Even that is quite a large number for 3 months.

    And 10 million sounds low for 7 months of shipping :-/

  20. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sufi View Post
    @admartian, I'll be waiting for that like once everything sorts out on your end. Btw this is not a request, consider it a threat.
    Bring IT!



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    I've said for ages that the PS3 is being positioned to be the new PS2-like entry point into gaming in Sony's range. I can see it selling way into PS4's life just like the PS2 did into PS3's. Sony have been slowly positioning the PS3 into a cheaper place with $#@!loads of software. Their collections range (whole series in one), Essentials (cheap hits), and things like th PS+ IGC bundle puts a LOT of great content at very affordable prices. Plus isn't Sony looking at putting the PS3 into poorermarketslike Brazil and China?

    PS3 is gonna keep selling for a long time I think .

  22. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sufi View Post
    @admartian, I'll be waiting for that like once everything sorts out on your end. Btw this is not a request, consider it a threat.


    Where are you getting the 18 mil? I was not able to find that.

    Either way, they can live without a price cut and we thought before too that they wouldn't be able to afford a price cut, the reality is that if they feel they will likely make more money in the end (or to keep afloat), they will go ahead with the price cut.

    That only makes sense right? They can't just go on without a price cut and then just shut down one day (I'm looking at you Sega!).
    Here:

    http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/fina.../12q4_sony.pdf

    Under "Game"

  23. #22
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    The number did include all the research and such for ps4 as well, so I consider it to decent number.
    There has been papers on single chip Ps3 (Cell&RSX in single die), if that happens Sony can certainly drop ps3 price.
    'no, no one in their sane mind uses OpenGL on PS3' - Repi
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  24. #23
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    It does, and we have to assume
    some form of mild subsidising of the PS4 at launch, which would be even more incentive not drop the price of the PS3.

    It could well be a case of sacrificing sales for PS3 in favour of a decent margin to help cover the PS4 launch.

  25. #24
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    Well, whatever is going on is likely temporary as there's plenty of demand left. There are people that will never touch the next-gen consoles so the PS3/360 is good enough for them. 360 is pretty much up there, so it only makes sense that there is going to be more demand for the PS3 some time down the line. Personally, price-wise it's probably up there with the 360 in demand. Meaning if the PS3 was as cheap as the 360, we would likely see similar sales but of course they'd lose a lot of money doing that.

    The inclusion of blu-ray is a love/hate relationship, while it has hurt them a lot, I'm positive it's seen as a plus more now than before as a movie player and games being on it.

  26. #25
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    Wasn't the PS2 only at like 100 million when PS3 launched? So it did an extra 55 million during PS3s life.
    Quote Originally Posted by BigDug13
    I want Naughty Dog to explore new game genres, not regurgitate cinematic corridor shooters for another generation.

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