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  1. #1
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    IDC: PS4 to lead all consoles with 51 million sold by 2016

    IDC predicts that Sony's PlayStation 4 will have the single biggest share of the market in 2016 with 51 million sold globally.

    http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-05-06-ps4-to-lead-all-consoles-with-51-million-sold-by-2016-idc


    Though the article [analysis by IDC] is riddled with flawed assumptions. I also think 51 million seems like an impossible number to manufacture in the next 2 years.
    Last edited by Julz; 05-07-2014 at 15:48.

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    That.....is a lot. Interesting if it did, but seems highly unlikely....Maybe if VR goes absolutely crazy and Sony handles Morpheus well. But yeah...

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    didn't they predict crazy numbers for PS3 last gen too?

  4. #4
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    Doubtful.




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    Quote Originally Posted by Sufi View Post
    didn't they predict crazy numbers for PS3 last gen too?
    Yes. Something like 105M PS3s by 2012.

  6. Likes Omar likes this post
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    Look at it this way then. The ps3 sold roughly 2/3s that maybe a bit less, ( can't be bothered to check at the moment...) So,with that in mind, take2/3s the ps4 estimate from them, and it would seem more realistic. At around 34 million. (Seeing they're roughly 6 months in with 7+ million already.)
    for some reason, i feel like stuffing an unrevealing yet obvious porn dvd case with goldfish snack crackers after removing the dvd and sell it to a gullible teenager.

  8. #7
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    we also have to consider that PS3 was much harder to sell. but either way, who knows how much it will sell. it makes sense when someone said that they can't even manufacture the thing that quickly.

  9. #8
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    PS4 to lead all consoles with 51 million sold by 2016 - IDC

    Research firm also expects Kinect to be unbundled from Xbox One and physical game sales to decline 45% compared to last gen
    International Data Corporation (IDC) is preparing to publish its latest console forecast and the research firm has given GamesIndustry International an exclusive preview of the report. There are several key takeaways to note, including Sony's dominance of the new console cycle, Microsoft's need to unbundle Kinect, and a general decline in the physical retail side of the games business.


    IDC predicts that Sony's PlayStation 4 will have the single biggest share of the market in 2016 with 51 million sold globally. Microsoft hasn't been faring quite as well, but IDC believes Xbox One will make a serious comeback, particularly in North America where it's forecasted to take the lead. This will be spurred on by unbundling Kinect, IDC said.


    "The presumed unbundling of Kinect and Xbox One, which should facilitate rough price parity between it and the PS4, should lead to a spike in Xbox One sales; assuming the console and sensor are unbundled in 2015, IDC expects Xbox One to recover and emerge with the largest installed base of any console in North America by the end of 2016," the firm explained.


    Meanwhile, Nintendo's Wii U is expected to finally receive "the equivalent of a $50 price cut worldwide in late 2014 or early 2015," but it won't make a serious dent in the installed base gap between Wii U and the competition.
    http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...ld-by-2016-idc

    of course, if we wind the clock back a few years...

  10. #9
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    Already posted in the PS4 section hours ago.

  11. #10
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    lol no not 51m.

    it'll lead, sure. Seems a tad high imo.

    #IndieStation4 and proud of it.

  12. #11
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    that is a bit to much too soon, i say 25 million by 2016... Unless the price comes do it might do more

    But until then, 25 million is my guess by 2016
    Plato and Aristotle, a detail of The School of Athens, a fresco by Raphael. Aristotle gestures to the earth, representing his belief in knowledge

  13. #12
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    Threads merged.

    #IndieStation4 and proud of it.

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    yeah, MS is not going to unbundle the Kinect.

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    The ps4 would have to keep out performing the Wii during the same time period. I can't see that happening. I'm shocked that it's happening now.
    Destiny is going to be EVERYTHING that EA and MS hoped titanfall would be

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    Even by the end of 2016 these numbers seem unlikely.


  17. #16
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    Paint the pic for you guys.

    wii
    Code:
    Hardware       Ap-Jn    Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr      FY      LTD
    
    FY 2006/07       -        -      3.19     2.65      5.84     5.84
    
    FY 2007/08     3.43     3.90     6.96     4.32      18.61    24.45   
    
    FY 2008/09     5.17     4.93     10.42    5.43      25.95    50.39
    
    FY 2009/10     2.23     3.53     11.30    3.48      20.53    70.93
    
    FY 2010/11     3.04     1.93     8.75     1.36      15.08    86.01
    
    FY 2011/12     1.56     1.79     5.61     0.88      9.84     95.85
    
    FY 2012/13     0.71     0.61     2.21     0.45      3.98     99.84
    Destiny is going to be EVERYTHING that EA and MS hoped titanfall would be

  18. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Two4DaMoney View Post
    Paint the pic for you guys.

    wii
    Code:
    Hardware       Ap-Jn    Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr      FY      LTD
    
    FY 2006/07       -        -      3.19     2.65      5.84     5.84
    
    FY 2007/08     3.43     3.90     6.96     4.32      18.61    24.45   
    
    FY 2008/09     5.17     4.93     10.42    5.43      25.95    50.39
    
    FY 2009/10     2.23     3.53     11.30    3.48      20.53    70.93
    
    FY 2010/11     3.04     1.93     8.75     1.36      15.08    86.01
    
    FY 2011/12     1.56     1.79     5.61     0.88      9.84     95.85
    
    FY 2012/13     0.71     0.61     2.21     0.45      3.98     99.84
    Different time, different product, different market, different circumstances.

    Possible based on 1 previous trend? sure.

    But unlikely imo. At least that number. The PS4 will be a healthy seller for certain, but 51 mill in 2 years?

    That's 44 mill from now on till then...

    I think something around 20-35 (tops!) is closer to reality.

    #IndieStation4 and proud of it.

  19. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Admartian View Post
    Different time, different product, different market, different circumstances.

    Possible based on 1 previous trend? sure.

    But unlikely imo. At least that number. The PS4 will be a healthy seller for certain, but 51 mill in 2 years?

    That's 44 mill from now on till then...

    I think something around 20-35 (tops!) is closer to reality.
    It'll be well over 20mil by then. PS3 sold 21m in the same time frame
    Destiny is going to be EVERYTHING that EA and MS hoped titanfall would be

  20. #19
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    To achieve this we need:
    - PS4 priced to $350US + free game by Nov.
    - Gran Turismo 6 HD+ or GT7.
    - Project Beast to be a reality
    - Killer Move title ala Sports Champions 3.
    - Morpheus under $400US.
    - Killer Morpheus title.

    I'd love to see a PS4 port of Tumble with pixel perfect AA and stunning lighting.
    Last edited by mickice; 05-09-2014 at 12:31.

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  21. #20
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    20+ mission for the next two years? Not without being $99. Never gonna happen.
    Quote Originally Posted by BigDug13
    I want Naughty Dog to explore new game genres, not regurgitate cinematic corridor shooters for another generation.

  22. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by AaronSOLDIER View Post
    20+ mission for the next two years? Not without being $99. Never gonna happen.
    That's going to be easy. The ps3 did it and the ps4 is far more popular amongst the gamers than the ps3 ever was.
    Destiny is going to be EVERYTHING that EA and MS hoped titanfall would be

  23. #22
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    No it didn't lol, the PS3s best year was something like 15 mil (probably the $299 slim). The PS3 had a much more diverse library with original IPs, so far PS4 is getting mostly sequels.
    Quote Originally Posted by BigDug13
    I want Naughty Dog to explore new game genres, not regurgitate cinematic corridor shooters for another generation.

  24. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by AaronSOLDIER View Post
    No it didn't lol, the PS3s best year was something like 15 mil (probably the $299 slim). The PS3 had a much more diverse library with original IPs, so far PS4 is getting mostly sequels.
    Ohh, you were saying 20+ for each year? Nope, ps4 won't reach that.
    Destiny is going to be EVERYTHING that EA and MS hoped titanfall would be

  25. #24
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    Yeah. No doubt in my mind PS4 will win this gen with a large margin but I don't think even the PS2 managed 50+ mil within 2 years of its life.
    Quote Originally Posted by BigDug13
    I want Naughty Dog to explore new game genres, not regurgitate cinematic corridor shooters for another generation.

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