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    Xbox One to overtake PS4 in US by 2015, says analyst

    Just how big is the impact of unbundling the Kinect camera from Xbox One? Analysts weigh in on the strategy



    Xbox made big waves today by announcing a cheaper version of Xbox One sans Kinect slated to go on sale for $399 on June 9. Unbundling the camera wasn't entirely unexpected, as numerous industry observers had speculated that Microsoft would make such a move to close the price gap with Sony's PS4, but the fact that Microsoft unbundled Kinect so quickly after last fall's launch did surprise some. And now that it's happening, Xbox One hardware sales could jump considerably.


    IDC had already forecast Xbox One to emerge in North America with the largest installed base by 2016 (factoring in a likely Kinect unbundling) but because Microsoft acted so quickly, IDC research manager Lewis Ward told GamesIndustry International that he now believes Xbox One will surpass PS4 in the US by next year.


    "This change will be enough to push the Xbox One installed base higher than PS4 in the U.S. and Canada in 2015 rather than 2016. It kind of reminds me of Microsoft's evolution on Windows and IE. The initial design needs some serious help (i.e., last summer's DRM 'Xbox 180') and then improves to point of being a serious contender (this Kinect unbundling) and then vies for market share dominance (although I continue to believe PS4 will have the largest global installed base of any console at the end of 2016)," he explained.
    RW Baird analyst Colin Sebastian agrees that Xbox One sales should start ticking upwards now. "We note the Xbox One pricing action is early, by historical standards, for a relatively new video game console. However, we estimate that price cuts on the Xbox 360 in August 2007 and September 2008 each drove more than 100k incremental monthly unit sales," he said.
    http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-05-13-xbox-one-to-overtake-ps4-in-us-by-2015-says-analyst

    of course, with Sony losing so much money. one would hope there still around next year to compete.


    Last edited by Yungstar 2006; 05-14-2014 at 19:56.

  2. #2
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  3. #3
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    Yeah, if you tape the X1 to a Ferrari and the PS4 to a Fiat 500, and make them race!


    Quote Originally Posted by F34R View Post
    Ok... I was wrong. Happy?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yungstar 2006 View Post
    Just how big is the impact of unbundling the Kinect camera from Xbox One? Analysts weigh in on the strategy http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2014-05-13-xbox-one-to-overtake-ps4-in-us-by-2015-says-analyst of course, with Sony losing so much money. one would hope there still around next year to compete.
    Oh yes Sony and the PS4 are doomed!!! Sony will close their doors by next year. You heard it here first folks. Yungstar has made the call. Lmao.

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    How? Even at 400$ and without the Kinect it's still the weaker console and several millions behind the PS4.

    Sure, maybe MS can work their way to closing the gap by the end of 2015 if they get some good exclusive on the way. That would get people possibly choosing it over the PS4 or get current PS4 owners to become multi-console owners. But you can't surpass the PS4 when it's matching or surpassing you in all areas of appeal. It just doesn't add up. The PS4 library would basically need to collapse in the next 1.5 years for this to work, which obviously won't happen.

    I don't keep up with sales information very much but even I know this is nonsensical. :s

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    Quote Originally Posted by mistercrow View Post
    Oh yes Sony and the PS4 are doomed!!! Sony will close their doors by next year. You heard it here first folks. Yungstar has made the call. Lmao.
    yep....Sony's billions in assets are going to fly away like a fart in the wind in a year.

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    http://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbo.../1100-6419613/
    Kevin VanOrd - The True Value of the Xbox

    I've often said this about games, but it applies to consoles, consumer electronics, and most other products as well: "value" is more than just how much something costs. For instance, when shopping for a new television, I'm not looking for the least expensive television--I'm shopping for the best value based on my perception of what's important. Does it have 3D capabilities? What's the refresh rate? Does it have built-in support for YouTube, Netflix, and so forth? What other features does it have, and how do they improve my viewing experience? If I perceive additional value, I don't mind spending a little bit more.

    Microsoft's problem is not price--it's value. You can, of course, improve an object's value by reducing its price, but from the very beginning, Microsoft impressed upon us that Kinect was a vital part of the Xbox One experience, but they did so without assigning any real value to the Kinect. It's difficult to convince the average consumer that the ability to speak to a console or navigate an interface without a controller is a substantial improvement over using a gamepad or a remote control. In fact, Kinect's reputation for fiddly, imprecise controls had likely convinced consumers that the new Kinect wasn't worth the trouble.

    That meant that it was up to the games to give value to the Kinect. And I think we all know how well that's gone.

    Considering the upcoming Kinect-less Xbox One sells for $100 less, it's now impossible not to see the Kinect as the sole reason for the console's premium price--and it’s impossible not to assume that Kinect was so unimportant to Microsoft that it reversed course in a matter of months. Now the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One share a price, it's up to Microsoft to convince a skeptical public that it offers the better value, something it never did when Kinect was included. Given the company's mixed messaging, which was apparent from the moment the Xbox One was announced, I'm not sure Microsoft is up for the challenge, though that’s a story for another day.
    I agree with almost every word of this. And really sorry for the guys who bought xbo early, they didn't get 120 $ game for free and they bought a useless device for 100$...
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  9. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christopher View Post
    yep....Sony's billions in assets are going to fly away like a fart in the wind in a year. sigh
    Yep we better trade in our PS4s for X1s and jump off the sinking ship before next year. lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yungstar 2006 View Post
    of course, with Sony losing so much money. one would hope there still around next year to compete.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bitbydeath View Post
    Propably a little of both.

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    As long as the PS4 is still outperforming the XB1, the XB1 will not be overtaking anything.

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    I can see this happening in the states (if PS4 demand drops to near 0 and XB1 rises slightly). In the States.

    Everywhere else; hmmm...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Admartian View Post
    I can see this happening in the states (if PS4 demand drops to near 0 and XB1 rises slightly). In the States.

    Everywhere else; hmmm...
    Sony will get hit with a red line of death...100% casualties

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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungMullah88 View Post
    Sony will get hit with a red line of death...100% casualties

    Sent from my SM-N900T using Tapatalk
    red line = console not working? I was confused at first then remembered the colour line indicating power states.
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  17. #15
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    Xbone + kinect + game = $399-$450 during March and April. PS4 outsold it during March and most likely during April too.

    Xbone - kinect - game = $399 means sales are now magically going to burst through the roof and start to outsell the ps4 constantly

    They're just going to have to prove me wrong because it makes no sense to think the xbox is going to take the lead.


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    Sure. But it's not farfetched to think it'll do better.

    Heaps better.

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  19. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yungstar 2006 View Post
    of course, with Sony losing so much money. one would hope there still around next year to compete.
    What relevance is this?

    regarding the OP, I'd agree with Rapture, Sony's games library would need to collapse in order for this to happen.

    Furthermore, Given the hardware difference even without kinect, MS will have a hard time marketing the under powered console at the same price.
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  20. #18
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    In the US I think its possible although not likely. . The PS4 outsold the X1 in the US but wasnt that by a fairly marginal number? (I dont remember the exact numbers). But MS would really have to unleash a mighty E3 show with that pricedrop and Sony would really have to have a really underwhelming E3 show. Otherwise yes, an underpowered console with inferior multiplats at the same price will be a tough sell. Of course alot of mainstream gamers may not care about it being underpowered if the games still look good I dont know.
    Last edited by mistercrow; 05-15-2014 at 03:33.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Admartian View Post
    Sure. But it's not farfetched to think it'll do better.

    Heaps better.

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    Yes, better but not heaps imo.

    The $499 xbones sold more on a weekly basis in feb than the $399-$450 xbones with titanfall in march.

    I think April npd will reveal a lot about how people see the ps4 vs xbone as far as the value goes. MS still had deals going on and the ps4 seem to not suffer any stock issues.
    Last edited by Two4DaMoney; 05-15-2014 at 03:29.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Two4DaMoney View Post
    Yes, better but not heaps imo. The $499 xbones sold more on a weekly basis in feb than the $399-$450 xbones with titanfall in march.
    Yeah those Titanfall bundles must have done even worse than we thought with this announcement coming so soon after the numbers.

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    The way I see it, it's really going to depend what games both will have as exclusives that fit what is popular in the U.S. I have to admit that MS has had the upper hand in that but at the same time they had advantages back then that they don't have now. E3 will give us a better idea.

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    Quote Originally Posted by -Shafty- View Post
    Yeah, if you tape the X1 to a Ferrari and the PS4 to a Fiat 500, and make them race!
    I'd pick the PS4 and the fiat, more aerodynamic.

  25. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captncoke49 View Post
    The way I see it, it's really going to depend what games both will have as exclusives that fit what is popular in the U.S. I have to admit that MS has had the upper hand in that but at the same time they had advantages back then that they don't have now. E3 will give us a better idea.
    Yeah I agree. And E3 will definitely tell us alot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mistercrow View Post
    Yeah I agree. And E3 will definitely tell us alot.
    It better given what MS has announced, they need something to fill the show up with lol.

    <Phil Spencer walks on stage>
    <Rifles through cue cards for speech>
    <Mutters> "nope", "done that", "already announced it..."
    <throws cue cards away>

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  28. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by mynd View Post
    It better given what MS has announced, they need something to fill the show up with lol.

    <Phil Spencer walks on stage>
    <Rifles through cue cards for speech>
    <Mutters> "nope", "done that", "already announced it..."
    <throws cue cards away>
    Lol, that wouldn't be good.

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