The End of Blu-Ray?

[theshadow1234]

Nearly a year and a half ago I wrote a column saying that Blu-Ray wins or nothing does. This showcases the reality of doing predictions because while the analysis held up, events did not pan out as anticipated and by any current measure HD DVD will end this year with a decisive win.

The basis for the prediction, which did accurately point out that Sony’s win here might actually cost them more than a loss, was the PS3 and the forecast volumes for that product. Back in August of 2005 we did know that HD DVD, which used DVD production technology, would be easier to bring to market but it simply did not seem reasonable that Sony would put their PlayStation franchise at risk for anything but a technology they were absolutely certain they could bring to market on time.

That turned out to be incorrect. The problems with Blu-Ray have created extreme cost and execution problems for Sony and now their premier division (instead of being the profit center for Sony) is predicting they will take a $1.5B loss next year largely resulting from this decision. To put this in perspective, just think what would happen if Apple’s iPod group, instead of generating massive profit, suddenly dropped into massive loss. Now you can see why the Sony PlayStation division just changed out their top executives.

Why HD DVD is Winning

When you talk to either the HD DVD or the Blu-Ray camp you get the sense that neither actually watches movies much. Both cite features as the reason why folks will pick one or the other. Yes there is a lame shooting game in League of Extraordinary Gentlemen (Blu-Ray) and there are a ton of things you can do interactively in HD DVD (including changing car colors in one scene in The Fast and Furious III: Tokyo Drift). But the movie market moves on quality of movie, price of player, and price and availability of media.

At launch HD DVD players were about half the price of Blu-Ray players and the movie price for HD DVD is generally running about $5 less. In addition, many of the new HD DVD movies also have regular DVD side which means that buyers, most of which will have both HD DVD and DVD decks, will get better value with HD DVD than with Blu-Ray – that’s the theory anyways.

All that being said, the killing blow may have been done by Microsoft who decided to bring to market a $200 HD DVD option for their Xbox 360 which has been in market a year longer than Sony and is projected to have a near 20x installed base advantage by year end (10M Xbox 360 to 600K PS3). Note that both projections are aggressive but Sony was supposed to originally ship 2M PS3s into the market during the 4th quarter and actual numbers (given they had under 200K at launch) may be closer to 400K. And with a recall possible there is a chance they might not even make that. Add to this that the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive is for movies only, so each one counts for movie viewing while PS3s may not be used to watch movies and you have a situation where the active movie player advantage by year-end should be between 4x and 6x better for HD DVD over Blu-Ray.

Finally, HP who had been a big Blu-Ray supporter and dominates the Media Center PC market, introduced a $100 HD DVD upgrade for their PCs (Sony’s Blu-Ray VIAO solution was just dropped to $749). The impact of this last move is still too early to measure but there is no comparably priced (not even close) solution using Blu-Ray.

If you go to Amazon and look you can see HD DVDs are solidly ahead and this is before the impact of either the Microsoft or the HP moves, many of which won’t be opened until Christmas or haven’t yet been shipped (HP).

Now Sony will stick with a technology for years after the market has decided on another path and they do have some very strong supporters which include Dell, Apple, and Disney. Dell traditionally has been the PC bellwether company, Apple has the most loyal customer base, and Disney is the only Studio that people ask for by name. So these folks, particularly Sony, could drag this on for years. But if that is the case not only will many in the industry not make money, Sony will probably lose the most because they are still the ones doing the heavy lifting (In addition, after the battery problems, neither Dell nor Apple is as close to Sony as they had been).

Right now it appears impossible for Blu-Ray to gain a substantial lead on HD DVD, even after massive investment, they likely could only close the gap. If the HD market depends on the emergence of one as a standard and Blu-Ray no longer has a chance to be that standard, how long will it be before the Blu-Ray supporters follow HP and switch sides?

Do You Want One Standard?

Now you can evidently help drive this if you are so inclined. There is a petition that has been set up for you to voice your support if you believe that there should be only one and HD DVD is that one. You can find the petition here . Evidently they had collected 2,300 signatures at the time of this writing.

The petition was put together by HD NOW where the folks have collected a rather interesting list of supporting material which goes far farther than I have on supporting the conclusion that we’ve prematurely crossed over to the point where HD DVD has won the High Definition DVD competition.

Does Blu-Ray Die?

Blu-Ray has substantial storage capacity advantages for data and could survive as a high capacity personal computer storage medium. While expensive, one non-Sony vendor’s upcoming Blu-Ray laptop solution costs around $800 on top of a $3000 notebook but it gives that product an unmatched removable media capability. But this is a vastly better storage solution for a high-end PC it isn’t a high volume high definition movie watching solution.

So BluRay could indeed survive but probably not for movies only for PS3 games and high-end optical backup. The real question is does the PS3 survive or whether there will ever be a PS4. Some are saying that the PS3 is in deep trouble and some are saying the PS4 will never arrive with massive game defections from PS3 to Xbox.

Wrapping Up

The market wants one solution for High Definition video and we are already starting to see high definition downloads through services like Xbox live. Apple’s iTV is expected to go even further when it launches early next year. It may actually be too late for either of these platforms to move; if folks move aggressively to downloads for high definition content and if High Definition pay per view cable offerings continue to improve, even if I’m correct and HD DVD has won, it may have actually prevailed too late in the process to survive for long.

Be that as it may, with a 4x to 6x advantage by year end, you’d have to conclude that HD DVD has reached a point where it can’t lose and Blu-Ray is only now in a position to ensure both platforms lose. That last option still appears most likely if the market doesn’t move aggressively to one HD platform.

It's interesting how they already have a winner.? Im pulling for Blue-Ray all the way.

[qito]

when more ps3s actually get out there, everyone will be singing a different tune when blu ray will have the most market share.

[the jackle.2]

blu ray all the way MR COOL IS HERE

[Bullet Proof]

People do not accept change easily. From that aspect HD-DVD carries the name that people are familiar with and I agree this does carry some weight. However the added space Blue-Ray provides makes it a superior technology. I believe in the end and as games become more complex there will be no choice but to accept this as the standard. I am from the days of cassete tapes and I can truly remember being absolutley against the CD revolution. I didnt want to loose my collection, same is happening here with this war. The best always comes out on top because of nessesity and Blue-ray is indeed a better format. You can't argue that fact, HD-DVD has nothing more to offer than Blue-Ray. Blue-Ray is a superior format.

[danman227460]

1) Blu Ray will not fail, it might fade from commercial use. Used more by people as a media storage 200 GB disks are nothing to laugh at
2) HD DVD has been out longer than Blu Ray and at a more affordable price
3) Wait until AT LEAST a year before making judgements, the Blu Ray craze is picking up
4) Amazon isn't an accurate source for information
5) 360 might offer a HD DVD but remember, you have to buy a core or premium 360 PLUS the cost of the HD DVD and you probably will not get HDMI with it but VGA. Besides people like neat packages
6) Downloading HD content is a waste of time. The size of a HD DVD movie is above 12 GB, how long does it take a person with regular cable internet to download that? I rather take my time renting the movie watching it then watching a status bar.

[Skandulous]

big deal someguy gave his opinion that doesnt mean anything

[Bullet Proof]

It appears that there is a "trend" to slash or critisize Sony. People's opinions are just that opinions. There are not even enough Blue-Ray players in homes to make that call yet.

[theshadow1234]

Its not just Sony releasing more PS3's. They need to lower the prices on some of those Blue-Ray players. More people are getting HD-DVD because of it's low cost...Also, they are planning to put out more HD-DVDs drives in the 360s. HD-DVD is clearly leaving Blue-Ray behind.

[Bullet Proof]

Remember Laser Disks??? People went with them early and refused DVD's for some time before realizing that DVD's were superior.

[theshadow1234]

Remember Laser Disks??? People went with them early and refused DVD's for some time before realizing that DVD's were superior.

Also don't forget the DIVX format..That was up in the running with DVD and failed miserably.

[sony boy]

well when 70% of the movie industry supports Blu-Ray it's hard to say that it will fail. It also the only format backed by a game console. 360's HD DVD player is not for games that is why I'm saying it is not backed by a game console.

[narutoboy]

I'm sorry, but this is all bull****. Blu-ray is here to stay and it will win the format wars against Hd-dvd. I know i've beat this issue so many times, but one more can't hurt.

Ok, here, i'll lay out the many reasons why Blu-ray is unbeatable.

Inventors and Board of directors (bda):
Blu-ray was invented and backed by some of the biggest companies in the entire world. Those companies being, Apple, Dell, HP, Hitachi, LG, Mitsubishi Electric, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips,Samsung,Sharp, Sony, Sun Microsystems, TDK, Thomson, Twentieth Century Fox, Walt Disney, Warner Bros. Now before someone goes and mistakes this, these aren't the companies just supporting Blu-ray and could eventually go to hd-dvd if they choose so, the companies I just listed are the board of directors of the Blu-ray Disc Association. They hold a big financial stake within the Blu-ray format and I doubt they'll stand by letting their format fall flat on its ass.


Support by movie studios and electronics companies:
Over the past years Blu-ray has gained a massive following of electronics companies and movie studios, which is somewhere around the amount of 150 backers. In terms of support, if you truly want to look at things in perspective think of Blu-ray like Playstation 3's size compared to the GBA Micro. The more support by movie studios, means more movies and the biggest reason why people by these things is to play movies........duh

http://www.blu-raydisc.com/general_i...009/Index.html

Playstation 3:
With each Playstation 3 sold, a Blu-ray player's being sold and consumers aren't going to let the technology just sit their. The most likely possibility is for the ones who bought Playstation 3 to buy Blu-ray movies and try out their new High Definition disc player, which will be alot of people.

Implementation:
Through a little research you'll see that companies like Dell are already planning to roll out Pc's with built in Blu-ray drives, so the movement has already started and there's no going back.

Blu-ray will not fail, it's going to succeed.

[danman227460]

Its not just Sony releasing more PS3's. They need to lower the prices on some of those Blue-Ray players. More people are getting HD-DVD because of it's low cost...Also, they are planning to put out more HD-DVDs drives in the 360s. HD-DVD is clearly leaving Blue-Ray behind.

See thats gonna kill 360 fans, release a NEW 360 with HD DVD instead of external? If MS was smart, they would keep it external.

HD DVD IS more affordable right now with its low cost player but again, wait a year before you say anything.

Anything can happen in a year.

narutoboy brings up good points. Right now there is a LOT of muscle being Blu Ray and with Sony backing them up, MS has a mountain to climb in fighting them. Even Apple is with Blu Ray.

I noticed there are more HD DVD but again, HD DVD has been out longer and Blu Ray is catching up.

[wetowel]

Well then... I guess thats that. Excuse me while i go sell my ps3 and burn(with fire) my bluray movies.

[Bligmerk]

There is no way to evaluate Blu-ray vs HD-DVD until January. The PS3 only went on sale the last two weeks of November and that is going to determine where Blu-ray goes. As it is, Toshiba says there about 50,000 HD-DVD players sold in the U.S. and Japan as of early November. That took 9 months to sell that many players. As of early December, there are nearly 400,000 Blu-ray players in PS3's alone, not including the stand-alone Blu-ray players that have been selling for a few months. So the number of Blu-ray players sold in two weeks is almost 10 times the number of HD-DVD players sold in 9 months. Of course, not all PS3's are going to lead to Blu-ray movie sales but just a fraction of the install base is going to overwhelm HD-DVD. The Blu-ray movie numbers are going to show a huge spike for December, so January is the month to look at comparative numbers.

[Bullet Proof]

That sounds about right. Nice post!

[battyt2000]

It appears that there is a "trend" to slash or critisize Sony. People's opinions are just that opinions. There are not even enough Blue-Ray players in homes to make that call yet.

thats the point, there arent enough, and HD DVD is taking too big of a lead for Blu Ray to overcome and CATCH UP. MS has an installed base of 8,000,000 right now compared to sonys 400,000.

You kids wonder why theres a trend bad mouthing sony right now, its because they have made some very very poor choices, and most people who are not fanboys of one or the other see the forest through the trees. They realize that Blu Ray has screwed their marketing, production, backing and they make the obvious choice. They buy whats cheaper, readily available, and does virtually the same thing.

Thats the way the market works. Most people aside from the extreme "need to belong" types (fanboys) see the obvious, and dont hang on to a dream that just because sony used to be good, doesnt mean they will always be good.

[Ithorien]

Didn't read everything thoroughly, but here's what I have to say-

15/30GB vs. 25/50/200 (when they release the spec) GB

I mean common.

Not to mention the fact more studios are supporting Blu-Ray.

[ff81]

I really wish people would stop calling it BLUE-Ray.

It's BLU-RAY, no "E"

[danman227460]

thats the point, there arent enough, and HD DVD is taking too big of a lead for Blu Ray to overcome and CATCH UP. MS has an installed base of 8,000,000 right now compared to sonys 400,000.

You kids wonder why theres a trend bad mouthing sony right now, its because they have made some very very poor choices, and most people who are not fanboys of one or the other see the forest through the trees. They realize that Blu Ray has screwed their marketing, production, backing and they make the obvious choice. They buy whats cheaper, readily available, and does virtually the same thing.

Thats the way the market works. Most people aside from the extreme "need to belong" types (fanboys) see the obvious, and dont hang on to a dream that just because sony used to be good, doesnt mean they will always be good.

I would like to see proof of your "facts". Just because MS sold 8 Million consoles, how many of those ACTUALLY have the external HD DVD hooked up?
You also have to realize that 360 uses VGA and not HDMI which is the standard that will replace VGA.

How bout MS? MS was NEVER good to begin with and this is becoming a flamewar fast.

In a year, there will be FEW TVs with VGA and all your HD DVD for the 360 will be viewed through composite.

[theshadow1234]

Support by movie studios and electronics companies:
Over the past years Blu-ray has gained a massive following of electronics companies and movie studios, which is somewhere around the amount of 150 backers. In terms of support, if you truly want to look at things in perspective think of Blu-ray like Playstation 3's size compared to the GBA Micro. The more support by movie studios, means more movies and the biggest reason why people by these things is to play movies........duh

http://www.blu-raydisc.com/general_i...009/Index.html


Hopefully they are able to hold on to thier movie supporters (Disney being one of them) and possibly gaining more deals with movie studios..This is the key to winning this.

I think they pretty much nailed the coffin with their Media storage of Blue-Ray.

[battyt2000]

I'm sorry, but this is all bull****. Blu-ray is here to stay and it will win the format wars against Hd-dvd. I know i've beat this issue so many times, but one more can't hurt.

Ok, here, i'll lay out the many reasons why Blu-ray is unbeatable.

Inventors and Board of directors (bda):
Blu-ray was invented and backed by some of the biggest companies in the entire world. Those companies being, Apple, Dell, HP, Hitachi, LG, Mitsubishi Electric, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips,Samsung,Sharp, Sony, Sun Microsystems, TDK, Thomson, Twentieth Century Fox, Walt Disney, Warner Bros. Now before someone goes and mistakes this, these aren't the companies just supporting Blu-ray and could eventually go to hd-dvd if they choose so, the companies I just listed are the board of directors of the Blu-ray Disc Association. They hold a big financial stake within the Blu-ray format and I doubt they'll stand by letting their format fall flat on its ass.


Support by movie studios and electronics companies:
Over the past years Blu-ray has gained a massive following of electronics companies and movie studios, which is somewhere around the amount of 150 backers. In terms of support, if you truly want to look at things in perspective think of Blu-ray like Playstation 3's size compared to the GBA Micro. The more support by movie studios, means more movies and the biggest reason why people by these things is to play movies........duh

http://www.blu-raydisc.com/general_i...009/Index.html

Playstation 3:
With each Playstation 3 sold, a Blu-ray player's being sold and consumers aren't going to let the technology just sit their. The most likely possibility is for the ones who bought Playstation 3 to buy Blu-ray movies and try out their new High Definition disc player, which will be alot of people.

Implementation:
Through a little research you'll see that companies like Dell are already planning to roll out Pc's with built in Blu-ray drives, so the movement has already started and there's no going back.

Blu-ray will not fail, it's going to succeed.

Take off your sony blinders kid, how many of those are exclusive to Blu Ray. Grow up and see the world as a non sony zombie. For hell sakes you use the blu ray website as your source, of course they are going to make it sound like its the ONE format.

AGAIN remember what i said in the other forum, the ps3 is DEAD FREAKIN LAST this gen. Just remember this, they have finally found themselves in something they aint never gettin out of.

[ripmax]

blu-ray is still winning, it has more companies backing it than what hd-dvd has.

[danman227460]

Take off your sony blinders kid, how many of those are exclusive to Blu Ray. Grow up and see the world as a non sony zombie. For hell sakes you use the blu ray website as your source, of course they are going to make it sound like its the ONE format.

AGAIN remember what i said in the other forum, the ps3 is DEAD FREAKIN LAST this gen. Just remember this, they have finally found themselves in something they aint never gettin out of.

I like the way you talk, you seem so sure that MS has this thing in the bag when the Wii and PS3 is lurking around in the shadows.

All Im saying by June, its gonna be a different story.

[theshadow1234]

Oh and speaking of Disney, they need to start releasing some titles that the younger generation can enjoy. These titles being, The Little Mermaid, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, The Lion King, Nemo..Etcc..If they can do this, we can see a huge increase in sales.