Long term console war predictions

[NOVAA]

Alright, I was listening to an IGN podcast the other day, and the guy was talking and basically validated what I have been thinking for a long time now.

THe 360 is not built to be a 8-10 year console. It probably has about 3 more years of life before its games start to look dated, and MS will be well into developing Xbox 3 by then.

From everything I've heard however, the PS3 is a system that should scale well for the next 7-10 years, and it will be in there for the long haul like PS2 and PS1, thanks to the things Sony has been hyping for so long, like the Cell and Blu-Ray.

So say, in spring 2011, MS launches Xbox 3 for like $599.99 (Feasible price with inflation, and the ground the PS3 broke). By then, the PS3 should be around $199.99-249.99, a large installed base of 40-50 million, and just reaching the peak of its life, with developers really understanding how to make games for it. If the situation is similar to this, MS is going to have a real problem on their hands. It would take the XBox 3 a long time to find its niche in a market like this. And then maybe in 2012 or 2013, Sony launches PS4, which will dwarf the Xbox 3, and Sony takes most of the market share.

I believe that the console war is gonna be dead even for the next 3 years, but after that it is going to start falling throught for MS, while Sony will reap the benefits of building a future proof system.

[Frakktion]

Alright, I was listening to an IGN podcast the other day, and the guy was talking and basically validated what I have been thinking for a long time now.

THe 360 is not built to be a 8-10 year console. It probably has about 3 more years of life before its games start to look dated, and MS will be well into developing Xbox 3 by then.

From everything I've heard however, the PS3 is a system that should scale well for the next 7-10 years, and it will be in there for the long haul like PS2 and PS1, thanks to the things Sony has been hyping for so long, like the Cell and Blu-Ray.

So say, in spring 2011, MS launches Xbox 3 for like $599.99 (Feasible price with inflation, and the ground the PS3 broke). By then, the PS3 should be around $199.99-249.99, a large installed base of 40-50 million, and just reaching the peak of its life, with developers really understanding how to make games for it. If the situation is similar to this, MS is going to have a real problem on their hands. It would take the XBox 3 a long time to find its niche in a market like this. And then maybe in 2012 or 2013, Sony launches PS4, which will dwarf the Xbox 3, and Sony takes most of the market share.

I believe that the console war is gonna be dead even for the next 3 years, but after that it is going to start falling throught for MS, while Sony will reap the benefits of building a future proof system.

Really mature to leave out the best selling system at the moment and one of the fastet selling systems of all time. That's quite the achievement.

[NOVAA]

Really mature to leave out the best selling system at the moment and one of the fastet selling systems of all time. That's quite the achievement.

Well, this isn't about the Wii lol. I think what Nintendo will do their is release a console once ever 2-3 years like the Wii. Not state of the art, but cheap so their short console lifes are justified. I think Nintendo will be successful with their console offerings over time, but not as explosively as they have been out of the gate. A solid second behind Sony in the long haul is very feasible in my oppionon, which is a good return to a company who spends next to nothing on thier consoles compared to MS or Sony.

[nickjd331]

i think that all sounds like a fair predicition.

Although the wii is currently doing best with hardware sales. I reckon the attach rate of games to the console will let it down, with most owners only getting under 5 games (where as with my ps2 i had 50 games and i expect with ps3 after seeing these games to have about the same)

[Natalz]

Really mature to leave out the best selling system at the moment and one of the fastet selling systems of all time. That's quite the achievement.

Sorry you support the company that could not enter this war. Also they said they didn't want to compete with those systems, although their attitude suddenly changed cause their non-gaming cheapness is selling alot.

[surtur]

Really mature to leave out the best selling system at the moment and one of the fastet selling systems of all time. That's quite the achievement.

true but Nintendo always sells good the first year then sales usually slump for home consoles.. but hey the Wii might be different we will wait and see the results in 5-6 years if the Wii is still selling well then they made a great choice if the 360 or PS3 (ps3 being by bet) is selling well then yeah Nintendo will need to rethink there strategy.

[ShakaDaBing]

I think the biggest problem MS is going to need to over come is there hardware issues. The cell has 9 cpu's on one chip, intel is far away from that and it will be hard for MS to compete with it. Just 3 cpu's over heat the 360 know, they have alot of refinements and investments to make to produce a quality machine. I hate to say it but it is true, MS has a long way to go with there hardware. We will just have to wait to see what tech brings them. My guess xbox 3 will be quad core with a 1gig video card or something of that nature, to keep the price reasonable. The only thing with that is what will the cpu clock speeds be. Right now quads only run at 2.6 max, with out overclocking.

[Josh93]

That is a great prediction, and seems to be quite true, and logical.

[turtle553]

No company is ever going to launch a system at $599 for a very long time. People don't really factor inflation when they think of the value of a toy. Nintendo will probably release the next system within 4 years even with the Wii being popular once it really starts to look outdated.

[Lefein]

Really mature to leave out the best selling system at the moment and one of the fastet selling systems of all time. That's quite the achievement.

We're talking about consoles for gamers.

[nzitser]

which podcast was this and when did u listen to it?

[Bakari]

The Xbox 360 is going to have a much longer lifespan then that, why do people seem to have the idea that Microsoft wants to push a console out every 4 to 5 years? The only reason they pushed out the Xbox 360 and dropped support for the original Xbox was because they did not own a single part of its hardware. This made it damn near impossible to drop the price of manufacturing and with them having to constantly drop price to compete with the Playstation 2. If they would have stuck with the Xbox for another year or two, they could have very well been another 3-4 billion in the hole. They have already expressed their visions of a much longer running console this time around.

[ShakaDaBing]

We're talking about consoles for gamers.

LOL thats so funny!!! Would you mind if I made that my sig?

[.:DJ LeO:.]

in that case the only way for the playstation to dominate is remaining with the PS3 for about 2-3years after a 3rd xbox is released, and even in that case the inst. base of xbox and a new console that will work better than the PS3 will make a lot of people to jump in and others will demand a PS4, so the future is very hard to predict cause of the diferent situations that may be... we'll have to wait n see...

[Frakktion]

i think that all sounds like a fair predicition.

Although the wii is currently doing best with hardware sales. I reckon the attach rate of games to the console will let it down, with most owners only getting under 5 games (where as with my ps2 i had 50 games and i expect with ps3 after seeing these games to have about the same)

You do know that Wii's software attch rate is much better than PS3's attach rate right? Just look at m-create's top 50, NPD' top 10 console only and the UK top 40 chart.

Lefein: I'm tired of your "Wii is only for casuals".

Answer me this question then: Games like Red Steel, Super Paper Mario, Zelda Twilight Princess have all sold over 1 million world wide. The PS3 has only 1 game over 1 million. So how can the Wii be for casuals only? According to NPD, the Wii has 20 titles that have sold over 100k in the US, the PS3 has 8 games.

[Sockpuppet]

If the install base of the PS3 is no where near that of the PS2, it'll be dropped sooner rather than later. The fact the PS2 is supported is principly because the install base is so large there is still a market for games to be made for the system. If the Xbox360 is in the position where it holds the larger or at least a sizable market it's lifespan will also be drawn on longer.

It's not rocket science. MS wanted to launch a year ahead of the competition to secure a hefty lead and support from third party publishers and thus far aside from the hardware issues they've had, they've succeeded. The Xbox360 has good momentum and software developers and publishers are supporting it (much to the disdain of many members here, re; oh noes exclusive lost / multiplatform devs are lazy!!!). They won't stop supporting it until the momentum is such that maintaining support is no longer a financial viable option.

Likewise, if the PS3 is as successful in the next 4 or 5 years it will also get plenty of support, if it doesn't, expect Sony to announce a successor sooner rather than later.

If there wasn't an age indicator in the users information bracket I swear some of you were far younger than you are advertised.

[Frakktion]

Some people on this board has to realize that when a system takes potential console buyers from another system, that specific system IS a competing system no matter what. It doesn't matter if the Wii offer different games to some degree, when little Johnny is only allowed to buy one system or when Jack the student only have money for one console.

The Wii is a gaming system, the PS3 is a gaming system. Off course they are competing against each other.

[ShakaDaBing]

Personally right now if MS was to make a new console, it would be very hard for them to produce a machine like the PS3. Sure they could cram 9 cpu's in it and a 512 video card, but they would all melt for sure. Sony set the bar this time around and any company is going to have a hard time making a better console for a while. The cell alone is years ahead of anything AMD or Intel has at any price. Unless MS charges $1000 for there console, PS3 will have plenty of time to out perform the 360 and await the 3rd xbox. Only way would be if MS spent $400 mil on a cpu design for the next xbox, lets see what they are willing to spend.

[Kugar77]

You do know that Wii's software attch rate is much better than PS3's attach rate right? Just look at m-create's top 50, NPD' top 10 console only and the UK top 40 chart.

Lefein: I'm tired of your "Wii is only for casuals".

Answer me this question then: Games like Red Steel, Super Paper Mario, Zelda Twilight Princess have all sold over 1 million world wide. The PS3 has only 1 game over 1 million. So how can the Wii be for casuals only? According to NPD, the Wii has 20 titles that have sold over 100k in the US, the PS3 has 8 games.

give me a break: red steel is a joke, the only reason each of these games have allegedly sold 1 million is because those are the only good games that wii-buyers deem worthy to buy for their kiddy system. plus look at the future of the wii: besides metroid, SSB, and mario, what other GOOD games are coming out, you know, the ones that gamers (instead of my 7 year old cousin or 70 year old grandfather) want to play? i dont exactly see many gaming tournaments involving the wii either, especially with the great online support that nintendo has given

[Saigon]

They have already expressed their visions of a much longer running console this time around.

that must be the reason for the extended warranty fiasco...correct...

the op was good and it seems to hit the mark to what most people have stated for the longest...kk designed a great console for it to have a long projected life...

[Bligmerk]

THe 360 is not built to be a 8-10 year console. It probably has about 3 more years of life before its games start to look dated, and MS will be well into developing Xbox 3 by then.

Why do people keep repeating this? M$ is a software company, not a hardware company, so when it comes to hardware, they have to contract everything out.

If M$ was actually developing the junkbox 3, they would need a new GPU. You can't develop GPU design capability overnight or without tens of billions of dollars investment. There are only two GPU designers left, Nvidia and ATI.

They possibly could make up with Nvidia to do this but Nvidia would really make them pay through the nose. They decided to make their bed with ATI and ATI essentially does not exist anymore, it was bought out by AMD. AMD is really getting into financial difficulties trying to compete with Intel and there is a big layoff of the ATI section coming.

It seems very unlikely there will be a junkbox 3. The total disaster of junkbox 2 is only now playing out and it has quite a ways to go. The junkbox 2 is going to start looking dated next year, not 3 years from now.

It is more likely the junkbox 2 starts going into its death throes towards the end of next year, goes into a coma the year after that and dies in its 4th year.

M$ just never gets the console market. This time around, they focused on eventually getting a small bit of profit from the hardware but totally missed the fact a console not only survives, but grows, from its 1st party software. They don't have enough 1st party software to ever be successful. As it is, they would have to sell enough 1st party software to make a net of 26 billion dollars just to break even on what the junkbox 1 and junkbox 2 have cost them. It is highly unlikely the stockholders will put up with that for a third time.

There is now need for the fanboy terms of: "Junkbox" or "Xflop", Seeing as you have been here a while you should know the rules. - PS Gamer

[Sockpuppet]

Personally right now if MS was to make a new console, it would be very hard for them to produce a machine like the PS3. Sure they could cram 9 cpu's in it and a 512 video card, but they would all melt for sure. Sony set the bar this time around and any company is going to have a hard time making a better console for a while. The cell alone is years ahead of anything AMD or Intel has at any price. Unless MS charges $1000 for there console, PS3 will have plenty of time to out perform the 360 and await the 3rd xbox. Only way would be if MS spent $400 mil on a cpu design for the next xbox, lets see what they are willing to spend.

The Cell is one stripped down powerPC core from IBM, it doesn't have 9 cpu's, it has 1 that offloads data to the SPE's that in themselves, are not entirely CPU cores like the Xbox360's 3 cores with multi-threading.

[Frakktion]

give me a break: red steel is a joke, the only reason each of these games have allegedly sold 1 million is because those are the only good games that wii-buyers deem worthy to buy for their kiddy system. plus look at the future of the wii: besides metroid, SSB, and mario, what other GOOD games are coming out, you know, the ones that gamers (instead of my 7 year old cousin or 70 year old grandfather) want to play? i dont exactly see many gaming tournaments involving the wii either, especially with the great online support that nintendo has given

Call of Duty 3 and The Godfather have also sold quite well on the Wii. Can't you just admit that real games also sell well for the Wii. You just have to take a look at the sales charts, if you bother.

There's plenty of games coming for the Wii for the hardcore crowd. Also Metroid, Super Mario Galaxy and Brawl are for all ages, so I don't see your point there.

[supertight]

The Xbox 360 is going to have a much longer lifespan then that, why do people seem to have the idea that Microsoft wants to push a console out every 4 to 5 years? The only reason they pushed out the Xbox 360 and dropped support for the original Xbox was because they did not own a single part of its hardware. This made it damn near impossible to drop the price of manufacturing and with them having to constantly drop price to compete with the Playstation 2. If they would have stuck with the Xbox for another year or two, they could have very well been another 3-4 billion in the hole. They have already expressed their visions of a much longer running console this time around.

Their still paying Nvidia for that one....LOL

[coolguy]

The PS3 is the only next gen console built for the future....
it wil be around for at least the year 20011 to 20012.
so thats why it has blu-ray and the cell..............
why 4 gen PS3 games come out they will make 4 gen 360 games
look like 1 gen 360 games lol............................................... ..