Analyst claims this console generation will be the last
- Posted March 25th, 2009 at 06:34 EDT by
- 5,566 views
- 80 Comments
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has declared that the current generation of consoles will likely be the last of it’s kind, citing publisher's will not be able to afford to support a potential success to PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360.
"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter claims. "[Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720," he states. "The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can't afford it."
On the flip side, he added Nintendo Wii fans can expect an upgrade of some sort in order to implement high definition gameplay and a storage device. Yet, despite his comments regarding future iterations of gaming platforms, Pachter acknowledges that Sony will probably create another console some time in the future, albeit not for at least another five years.
"Sony is not going to put out a console until they make a profit on this generation, and my math puts that at around 2015."
We're going to leave this one up to our readers to decide on the believability and realistic nature of his claims within an industry that has shown nothing but growth.
Comments
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podsaurus
- 6:43am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 2
Ok so maybe with the economy the way it is they won't be able to afford to make a new console right away but they won't stop making consoles all togther. They have some many loyal constumers, Microsoft anf Sony both. They won't leave such a huge audience out in the cold, they would lose a pretty large amount of their profits. I don't think they could carry on quite as well just selling tvs and computers and not games.
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richkaos
- 6:50am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 4
Fair enough but he does not back his comments with what will replace the consoles he believes will cease to exist after the PS3 and 360, will gaming end? will we all revert to PC?? What is he going on about?? In one instance he says that there will be no consoles after this current gen and further down he says sony wont make another untill they make a profit on this gen?? are they or arent they???
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darthrazorback
- 7:09am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 7
Consoles will move toward becoming even greater media platforms. So, I think he is way off. If anything, I think the next generation of consoles will replace PCs and Macs in many respects.
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area51employee
- 7:15am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 9
any respectful company will strive to sell a product, hands down. that's the whole purpose of having a company. to have something to sell. sony strives today and will continue to strive to make things cheaper. this dude does not understand that the PS3 offers more high tech equipment than the wii or the X360. you know what's funny? i see the MS box failing all around me. my son's quit and his cousin's quit. M$ should pull the plug, not Sony.
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jigglespsu
- 7:20am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 10
So the largest entertainment sector just disappears into thin air?
Whatever comes along in the next 5 years (assuming that the world doesn't end before hand) consoles will still be around. Perhaps in a different format to what we see nowadays but they will be there.
Pachter has been wrong so many times I have to agree with #1. Agreeing that the mobile games market is taking off with iPhone, but a PS3 is cheaper than one of those badboys. I can see a propliferation of touch-based game consoles but not a replacement for the console.
It is concevable that M$ may bow out of the console market as it is costing them a fortune, however, Sony have designed PS3 to be expandable in terms of generational design so it will automatically have backwards compatibility with future PS designs
I would expect to see a PS4 at the end of the PS3 cycle and I predict that PS3 will outlive it's expected lifespan without breaking a sweat.
PS4 will be a solid-state device with a 16 or 32 spu cell, no blu-ray but one can be hooked in via USB 3.0 connection.
What is ridiculous about this article is that he sites big publishers as the problem, but from this generation we've seen the best games coming from 1st party and exclusive 3rd party so Sony doesn't need EA and the other big publishers to get a console off the ground, in fact I think they'd probably prefer things that way.
Pachter would be more accurate to say no more optical disk formats after 2015. Storage and bandwidth will be so cheap in 2015 that optical disc formats will probably be an unnecessary expense. We'll all be buying games on microSD cards.
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sh3-rg
- 7:35am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 11
In a way I can see where he is coming from, meaning there wouldn't be a huge technological jump from ps360 to the next versions, the 360 obviously has more scope there as it is technically inferior to ps3. Personally I think there will be a new xbox as soon as 2011/12 - the 360 has nowhere to go now & masses of bad publicity (again, earlier this week - big section on BBC1 Watchdog - scratching disks again) & microsoft know ps3 is storming forward software-wise. Microsoft won't like it when multi-platform games start looking less and less favourably on 360 vs ps3.
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GamingGumper
- 8:05am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 14
I really can't see the point of another console generation. Publishers are already having to sink millions into today's generation of graphical fidelity. There is nothing that the current consoles can't be made to do with firmware updates or networking changes. Sure there may be iterative enhancements such as Harddrive or enhanced features to the models that exisit now. What incentive would publishers have to hire even larger development studios and longer development time, when near photorealistic graphics are already possible.
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Smithy2306
- 8:07am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 15
I dont think so. The PS4 will likely be a monster PS3 with upgraded RAM and more SPU's that kind of thing. It will be if Sony is smart about it. Gaming is a massive industry that falls mostly into the hands of the consoles and that isn't going to change. If he is talking about something like onLive then only time will tell but for me personally I wouldn't trust a product that relies solely on the internet.
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Intervention
- 8:12am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 17
Woohoo more analysis from business perspective. In other words lazy college student doesn't like gaming consoles. He is a dinosaur that is clueless. I for one actually quit PC gaming because of the cheating issues on virtually everygame, especially FPS's. I started on consoles and will end with consoles, I have no plan of going back to PC. If that is the case everyone can just download there bots and wallhacks for everything from WoW to CoD. If that is the case I'll just quit video gaming altogether. Sony and M$ are way too big right now to throw in the towel anytime soon. Sony has a much bigger dilemma because they are redefining a format and pushing the populous to HD.
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masonmcglasson
- 8:19am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 19
I think he is referring to only one console will be able to succeed. I think developers will have to choose one and that one will probably be the ps4 (if developers are smart). PS2 is the worlds number 1 selling console, and ps3 will hopefully top that within the next 6 years.
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Dimpoc
- 8:40am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 22
PS4 will be centred around cloud gaming, I don't expect it to have many hardware upgrades (over the PS3, in the graphical and processer departments at least.) may just be a slimline version of the PS3 with a bigger hardrive. You might even be able to upgrade your PS3 into a PS4 through a firmware update. Ken Kutaragi hinted at this when the PS3 was released in Europe a couple of years back.
#14 has the right idea.
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ElPulga
- 8:47am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 24
Well here we go again people who say that they are analyst or think they know about something and they probably have never ever play a game in their life. That the current three will continue I dont know but it is obvious that there will be another next gen system. He doesnt even see the millions devs are getting today form games, even tyhe movie industry is trying to take a bite out of it.
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melmacj
- 9:10am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 25
This guy always has been a huge Nintendo fan. He's basically saying Sony and Microsoft business will die and Nintendo will rule all. I don't think someone like him should be in the business as a analyst or whatever his title may be. I think someone that's in the business of editor, analyst or whatever has to be unbiased. In a sense if this makes sense actually not like games at all. I've read his comments and I've listen to his comments and every chance he gets. He praised Nintendo and downplayed 360/PS3. Next Gen graphics aren't going anywhere bottomline. I don't care what this guy think. At the very least Sony/Microsoft will copy the setup of the upcoming OneLive before they'd let their business die. There are people out there such as my very self wants to play more than 20 different versions of freakin Mario. The enconmy is not where it was when Sony and Microsoft launch their systems. Who to say that they will bring out super expensive systems next round. Who to also say that America won't rebound and business actually get a little better when those systems launch. Thanks Pachter for your comment but no thanks.
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Paranoimia
- 9:12am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 26
What a tool this guy is!
Yet, despite his comments regarding future iterations of gaming platforms, Pachter acknowledges that Sony will probably create another console some time in the future, albeit not for at least another five years.
"Sony is not going to put out a console until they make a profit on this generation, and my math puts that at around 2015."Let's see... Sony launched the PS3 in late 2006/early 2007, and say they plan its lifespan to be 10 years. My math puts that at around 2016/2017... and this guy says he thinks Sony may put out another console around 2015.
What a frakkin' mastermind this guy is! *facepalm*
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Gtek500
- 9:35am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 29
This has nothing to do with buying the console and it's true they just lowered the price of the dev kit. So people before couldnt make games. Imagine what it would cost for the next system. They should make ps4 now and keep it testing until they can find ways to make it cheaper through production. Leave it as a prototype.
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ironflag55555
- 10:24am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 31
why couldnt this guy be one of the many that lost his job in this economy. drop dead already- smiling is a sign of weakness
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Lefein
- 10:30am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 32
Pachter must be leaving BluRay software sales out of the equation.... Lord knows Sony isn't ;) The PS3 should be reaching a profit to unit balance very soon. With software attach rates remaining high on top of Blu-Ray taking a rightful chunk out of media sales, it's easy to see why Sony came out this generation touting their long tail approach.
When Cell, RSX, and XDR drop to the 35nm process, that's when the PS3 will see it's Renessaince. Getting the system RAM down to a single block coupled with enormous yield rates will put Sony where they want to be. Meanwhile, developers will get more and more effective as their software tools evolve this generation. Pachter may be overshooting with the 2015 comment. 2013 will most likely be the year the PS4 is announced imho.
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Bigdoggy
- 10:44am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 33
rofl 2015, he says sony will start making a profit around 2015? Wedbush Morgan is a complete moron. I believe they will start making a profit earlier then 2015, LOL!!!! Wedbush Morgan's math skills blow big time. The guy is a dunce, Where do these stupid people come from, I swear that god creates these people just so we have a balanced amount of stupidity in the world.
I hate to be judgemental about age but this guy is an Old dingbat, these old people don't know what they are talking about half the time when it comes to stuff like Computers and Gaming Consoles. he probably doesn't play any games or follow the read ups on developers.
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Arimax
- 10:52am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 34
Maybe I got something a bit different from this article then you guys did, but it reality what could seriously be better than PS3 or 360?
I think about how big the jump was from PS1 to PS2 and from PS2 to PS3, and it still comes out that they really jumped big time from PS2 to PS3. When you go back to play a game like NBA whatever from the 90's, and then play NBA 2K on PS2. You tell yourself man those graphics suck on PS1, but when you go play that same NBA 2K game on PS3 then I'm just like whoa this stuff is photorealistic.
In fact when I think about it difference between sports games from PS1, 2, and 3
It's like graphics inbetween PS1 and Ps2 era and then like the "little stuff + graphics between PS2 and PS3 era.
Example would be college hoops 2K7 on Ps1 vs. PS2 vs. PS3 (I know it's not on Ps1, but just imagine it was.
PS1: It's regular players on court non realistic graphics, and everyone had the same shot/ did same stuff. A.I is poor, and crowd is paper thin
PS2: Better graphics, not everyone had the same shot/dunk. More things to choose from A.I was better. Movement unrealistic still, but better.
PS3: Graphics photorealistic, Positions play differently, and much more real, every team didn't feel the same, courts were different, and arenas had the home court feel to them. Movements and A.I were much better.
I know seems long, but to put a cap on this all I'm saying is the gap between the 3 consoles is larger between the PS2 and PS3.
EDIT: Also like to add this I agree that this may be the last we see, but only for a while cause at the moment these devs haven't used even 30% of the consoles power on these games. I played some of these games mostly on 360, and I see room for a lot of improvement that's not saying these games are terrible. Only I see ways to make them better.
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Brokentusk81
- 11:11am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 35
Heh Sounds like this guy is shooting in the dark. But honestly-- most of the comments aren't much better. "lliamsimp" thought Sony announced it was releasing PS4 later this year??? Wow-- you are just gullible. And "jigglespsu" thinks Microsoft is going to bow out b/c xbox is too costly? Um. . . Sony is in way more dire straights then Microsoft is over consoles-- at least according to ALL press releases. Don't you guys ever read the articles on this site? Sony has been struggling to keep its head above water-- and only now is there justifiable hope emerging for the console.
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lurkingshadow89
- 11:41am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 36
HaHa lol rofl Oh r u Fugin kiding me. who is this guy and where has he ben yep thats right a multi billion dollar market is going to just diapear for no reason. get real u call your since an anyalist you r more like a person who should be on a suicide hotline for talking so stupid.
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Lanthros
- 11:56am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 38
@brokentusk81, the only place sony is really struggling is in the TV and PC market. The PS3 broke even late last year and has been on a steady uptake since mid 08. As far as the 360 is concerned it is too costly. Not to make mind you but for the company to maintain. The failure rate for the system is STILL over a full third of installed units. Thats more then 33.9% failure rate. Ford recalled gremlins for a much much lower failure rate. Infact thats the highest failure rate of ANY piece of machinery ever released. Microsoftpenis dosent release the numbers on how much the refurb process costs them. They dont even release thier profit margins at all because they dont really exist. They are fully aware that atleast 5 million of thier 28 million units sold are system rebuys which completely throws off thier "massive" lead. Especialy considering realistic analysis of launch to date sales of all released systems puts sony actually slightly ahead. Think about it, 28 million units in 3 years with millions of those being rebuys making the actual install base much smaller versus 21 million in 2 years with almost no notable system failures or system rebuys putting the sony actual install base much closer to units sold. I do have to say though, any idiot who assumes cloud gaming is taking over next gen has absolutely no concept of reality.
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lordAlucard
- 11:59am GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 39
So he claims that the 8th generation won't happen It will. Remember Pachter the technlogy will improve by each gen well by Microsofts standards it will never happen.
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Brokentusk81
- 1:39pm GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 43
@Lanthros -- Very true. The hardware, quality wise, is a piece of crap, and surely is inflating their numbers. But we can't pretend that sales of the PS3 aren't embarrasing so far, or until recently. Those this is antecdotal, it is widely representative -- I have 7 or 8 friends that game, and NONE of them have a PS3 -- All of them have xbox360. Doesn't mean xbox is better than PS3, just means that sales have not been competative b/c of a variety of reasons (First to ship, better 3rd party support, lower price, etc). I'm sure things will change, but so far the leaders in the industry right now are Wii and 360.
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supamariobrotha
- 1:45pm GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 44
well nintendo isn't going anywhere and i doubt sony will quit making consoles anytime soon but i think the xbox brand will be done after this generation of consoles i think with the xbox and xbox 360 microsoft just wanted to try another area in which they could make money now that they have i think they will ditch the xbox brand and then the ex-sony fanboys will come crawling back
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marksman25
- 2:27pm GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 46
The guy's lost it. PS3 will be followed by PS4. PS4 will be followed by PS5 and so on...
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TETNUS
- 2:28pm GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 47
Ok, I had to step in. I do not believe we will see a new Sony Console until at least 2014. I do believe we will see new renditions of the PS3, but not a PS4. I think the PS3 will just evolve through firmware and updates to the console it self. I think it is dumb to number consoles for the reason that the lower numbers then become obsolete. Why do u think M$ went with Xbox360 and not XBOX2. This is because how would it look if the "XBOX2" were going head to head against a PS3. Psychologically it sounds weaker off the bat. Nintendo figured this out years ago and hence after "Super" they just dropped it and have gone with new names since then. I would have to agree that consoles are nearing their last days and what we will have is just one ever evolving platform in the near future. Fortunately for Sony I believe they already have theirs in place right now. I think Sony should drop the numbers games and just have a "Playstation" console that continuously evolves as time and technology permits.
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D3seeker
- 3:14pm GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 48
The money will always be there. Even if it's up to the fan base to demand some cool type of changes for the next generation, there will always b console wars. Espesially considering MS doesn't know when to give up, and Sony in always inovative with new technology, third party developers will alway want in, and will get in!
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superchatte
- 3:36pm GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 49
Does any serious company employ this guy ? Total bull$h!t
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nX3lemZ
- 3:37pm GMT - March 25th, 2009
- 50
Well honestly there is premiss to his claim.
The market has saturated. Creativity is fast not becoming the key attraction but rather graphics.
The costs to create such graphically intense games is rising and this decreases sales, noting that a few games on either PS3 or Xbox360 sell as well as the Wii games.
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