This is a combination of 1UP and another Michael Pachter prognostication at GDC09. It is true because his crystal ball has devined all.
Pachter: This is the Last Console Generation
Wedbush Morgan analyst predicts we've seen the last of new gaming consoles.
03/24/2009
At the GamesBeat 2009 Games Conference in San Francisco today, games industry analysts Michael Pachter (Wedbush Morgan), Colin Sebastian (Lazard Capital Markets), and David Cole (DFC Intelligence) delivered their thoughts on the next 10 years of the games industry. Most interesting are the analysts' predictions for the next console generation -- or lack thereof.
"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter claims. He says Nintendo will likely upgrade the Wii at some point (perhaps with HD and more storage), but all three console makers will be reluctant to release any subsequent consoles -- in the future it'll be more about a standard delivery platfrom. Why? Because there's no money in it for them. And because the third party publishers simply won't allow it. "[Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720," he says, pointing to the fact that they're already largely struggling with the cost of developing games today. "The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can't afford it," he continues, suggesting that the current crop of consoles will be the ones to last us well into the future.
Sebastian disagrees, instead saying the game's industry will have one more console generation, which will hit in 2012. Cole agrees with him, saying that in 2012 the PS3 will be the leading platform for software sales and that both Microsoft and Nintendo will be forced to launch new platforms (Sony would likely wait a bit longer).
Pachter at least agrees that we wouldn't see another Sony platform for quite some time. "Sony is not going to put out a console until they make a profit on this generation, and my math puts that at around 2015."
http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3173424
Wedbush Morgan analyst predicts we've seen the last of new gaming consoles.
03/24/2009
At the GamesBeat 2009 Games Conference in San Francisco today, games industry analysts Michael Pachter (Wedbush Morgan), Colin Sebastian (Lazard Capital Markets), and David Cole (DFC Intelligence) delivered their thoughts on the next 10 years of the games industry. Most interesting are the analysts' predictions for the next console generation -- or lack thereof.
"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter claims. He says Nintendo will likely upgrade the Wii at some point (perhaps with HD and more storage), but all three console makers will be reluctant to release any subsequent consoles -- in the future it'll be more about a standard delivery platfrom. Why? Because there's no money in it for them. And because the third party publishers simply won't allow it. "[Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720," he says, pointing to the fact that they're already largely struggling with the cost of developing games today. "The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can't afford it," he continues, suggesting that the current crop of consoles will be the ones to last us well into the future.
Sebastian disagrees, instead saying the game's industry will have one more console generation, which will hit in 2012. Cole agrees with him, saying that in 2012 the PS3 will be the leading platform for software sales and that both Microsoft and Nintendo will be forced to launch new platforms (Sony would likely wait a bit longer).
Pachter at least agrees that we wouldn't see another Sony platform for quite some time. "Sony is not going to put out a console until they make a profit on this generation, and my math puts that at around 2015."
http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3173424
