"This is last console generation" - Pachter shoots off mouth again

Mar 11, 2006
This is a combination of 1UP and another Michael Pachter prognostication at GDC09. It is true because his crystal ball has devined all.
Pachter: This is the Last Console Generation
Wedbush Morgan analyst predicts we've seen the last of new gaming consoles.

At the GamesBeat 2009 Games Conference in San Francisco today, games industry analysts Michael Pachter (Wedbush Morgan), Colin Sebastian (Lazard Capital Markets), and David Cole (DFC Intelligence) delivered their thoughts on the next 10 years of the games industry. Most interesting are the analysts' predictions for the next console generation -- or lack thereof.

"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter claims. He says Nintendo will likely upgrade the Wii at some point (perhaps with HD and more storage), but all three console makers will be reluctant to release any subsequent consoles -- in the future it'll be more about a standard delivery platfrom. Why? Because there's no money in it for them. And because the third party publishers simply won't allow it. "[Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720," he says, pointing to the fact that they're already largely struggling with the cost of developing games today. "The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can't afford it," he continues, suggesting that the current crop of consoles will be the ones to last us well into the future.

Sebastian disagrees, instead saying the game's industry will have one more console generation, which will hit in 2012. Cole agrees with him, saying that in 2012 the PS3 will be the leading platform for software sales and that both Microsoft and Nintendo will be forced to launch new platforms (Sony would likely wait a bit longer).

Pachter at least agrees that we wouldn't see another Sony platform for quite some time. "Sony is not going to put out a console until they make a profit on this generation, and my math puts that at around 2015."


Master Guru
Jul 25, 2008
Boston, MA
No more consoles? I'll probably quit gaming then. I need my Ps4, and Ps5. Just coming home from work and looking at my beautiful shiny Ps3 everyday brightens me up.


Elite Member
May 23, 2005
I agree we probably wont see a console until 2015 from Sony. As for there being no money in it, that's a load of crap. They made money on the PS2 and 1. Sony invested a crapload in the PS3 yes, but they put themselves in a very good position for the next installment. They drove the cost of manufacture down on BD and ensured its future market dominance. They can use a much faster version in the next console with 4 times the storage for over half the price. They are also setting themselves up for a very good media delivery system with the PSN. In another 6 years solid state media will be much cheaper and should start taking the place of HDDs, at least in consoles. That coupled with improved CELL versions would make for an amazing console. Remember, the CELL was designed to work very well with other CELLS. Having a CELL with a faster core, say 5GHZ and 24 SPEs would be a very big leap in terms of processing power. I still think Sony set themselves up the best this gen for the next installment, but time will tell.


The Game. You lost it.
Dec 31, 2006
I agree with him to a point. This will be the last generation of video game consoles as we know it, but it is definitely not the last generation altogether.


Superior Member
Jul 4, 2006
I don't think what the Analyst(s) were saying was that there wouldn't be anymore console gaming...they were saying there wouldn't be any "new" consoles...just upgrades. Bigger HDD...more Ram...Software updates. Sound familiar?

Computing technology has pretty much levelled off. Not completely of course, but its not expanding at the rate it was 10 years ago. We've reached the "practical" limits of computing power (due to hardware limitations, heat etc) and thus, game consoles won't advance much further than they have now...they won't have to, because there won't be a need to.

Developers will continue to make games and the console manufacturers will continue to produce consoles as long as there is demand, but the need for more powerful consoles will diminish considerably.

Of course I believe we will see another console generation...we'll see several. Its silly to think that there won't be enough technological upgrades to warrant another hardware release (discless consoles for everybody!) but I think they will come farther and farther apart. 5 year hardware cycles are a thing of the past...as Sony has mentioned time and time again.


You must take into consideration that we are starting to reach the limits of silicon based chips.


Elite Member
May 23, 2005
[QUOTE="Rapture, post: 4025857]You must take into consideration that we are starting to reach the limits of silicon based chips.[/quote]

This was said 10 years ago as well. It seems we keep getting smaller and faster.
Apr 25, 2007
Eugene, OR
you know i really wouldn't care if there was one platform as long it was made by someone like sony who knows hardware plus sony would STILL make their awesome games, one console and software competition wouldn't be such a bad thing

but i really don't care either way, as far as the limits of computing power goes you guys forget that we've just broke into parallel and multicore processing, there are millions of ways to expand on that you just have to look farther than the tip of your nose


Elite Guru
Mar 3, 2007
Dont worry when he discovers he's wrong he'll quickly come up with a reason why it didnt happen and somehow remain relevant.

Really? no more consoles? no more game devices that you put games into a play on our godly huge screen tvs? I'm sorry but it's the stupidest thing he could have ever said. And even if digital distribution somehow becomes viable (god forbid) people will still demand hard copies. Gamestop and Best Buy arent going out of the game business anytime soon.


Superior Member
Apr 9, 2008
Let list all the features that can be updated just now with current tech.
A faster network with a Gigabit Ethernet card. That will improve files transfer and online gaming a lot.

Ram is so cheap now that Sony should consider putting out a ps3.5 with at least 4Gb of ram right now!

Better heat management, blu ray disk and strict quality control am looking at you Microsoft!!! And don't call it 720 that would be just lame!

USB 3.0 nuff said!

Did you notice I did not get into the core of the system or anything else that would demand some R&D like the graphic card. If I had to design a ps4 or a xbox 720 right now everything I listed would be on top of my list.
Anybody who think we will not get a next gen is deluding himself because if Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo sit on their laurels for too long another player would enter the game. Am leaving Nintendo mostly out of it because I can't argue with success! Even if I want to a lot in the case of the Wii/GameCube...


Dedicated Member
Jan 7, 2008
Hehehe... Well, you never know..

Maybe by then, everything will be streamed ----> into our heads!!! hahaha.. XD

Games at TRUE 4D!!!


Ok. So how will OnLive magick up enough bandwidth to serve HD data transfers to people who... don't want to see the exact same picture as everyone else when they play a game..? And I suppose the superawesome computers that are going to generate frames for everyone without drops or tears - they already exist, obviously? And so does Terabit uplink hubs, and streaming with response times less than 100ms to a larger amount of simultaneous users? Or the magical compression software you can use to solve all outstanding issues with the system?

Seriously, the amount of successful MS propaganda this generation is unbelievable. Even if you simply have to be impressed by how well they are able to handle gullible morons. If only they were as good at making operating systems or consoles, I'd be the happiest gamer in the world.
Jan 14, 2009
Hahaha, this was unexpected from Pachter! I always thought he actually liked the gaming industry. Oh well...

The thing that gets me is that the gaming industry is worth more than music and film industries put together, why would any of the console makers back out now? Admittedly I'd agree with his prediction that Sony won't release another console for a some time, definitely long after Microsoft and Nintendo but 2015 is a long wait even for me. I reckon that the PS4 will be quite cheaper than the PS3 due the reduce research and development costs and the fact that Sony don't have to invest billions inventing Blu-ray and the Cell.

But just imagine what sort of games can be released for the PS3 during that time...I can't.
Feb 16, 2007
Patcher is like omnivore crap in an industry of carnivore crap...

I mean, he's moderately better than his fellows, but who really cares when he's still full of crap?

I'd love to give that man an enema and send him home in a matchbox.

[QUOTE="madhi19, post: 0]Let list all the features that can be updated just now with current tech.[/quote]

8x bluray drive... Maybe 12x or 16x by the time PS4 releases

4 or 8 gigs of ram

2 core, 12-18 SPU cell or Dual-architecture quadcore Intel + Cell (I think Sony and Toshiba should get back together... Put their differences behind them with the bluray vs HD-DVD battle, and make a dual architecture, or even tri-architecture (Intel, PPC, and MIPS?) though that may be pushing it... Dual architecture is already done in laptops, so the tech is miniaturized, if not quite cheap yet.

More efficient Graphics cards... I'm sure new shader techniques will be invented that the RSX can't do natively, and probably already exist

Full BC (PS1, 2, 3, P, Pocketstation, with no region locking on PS2 games... Though I doubt that would ever happen)... Maybe even Sony licensing non-nintendo, non-microsoft systems for a Virtual console type setup of their own (Genesis, Saturn, Dreamcast, Turbo Graphx, master system, I'd say MSX but that was a microsoft system, so no Metal Gear 2 in its original form, unfortunately... Wonder Swan, Neo Geo, Neo Geo pocket color, maybe even a Mame setup with more arcade games than just Midway and Sony owned games)

There's always room for improvement, there's just no more room for sony to sell another format. This will be more like the xbox --> 360 upgrade than the PS2 --> PS3 upgrade.
Nov 19, 2007
"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter claims.

Pachter at least agrees that we wouldn't see another Sony platform for quite some time. "Sony is not going to put out a console until they make a profit on this generation, and my math puts that at around 2015."

Contradiction or what, last generation of consoles now or new consoles in 2015, make up your mind Patcher!! He talks a lot of rubbish hoping that some of it will come true, it justifies his existence.