Analyst expects 11 million next-gen console sales by end of year

An analyst recently made a striking prediction: A lot of people are going to buy a PlayStation 4 and nextBox when they are released. OK, so it was a little more specific than that. Jesse Divnich of EEDAR forecasts that those initial sales will be heavy.

"Consider this – with the advent of new middleware technologies and a strong foundation of hungry consumers looking for next-generation experiences, creating content for future consoles could represent less competition. EADAR is forecasting over 11 million consumers to transition to the next-generation by the end of 2014 (PS4 and Xbox)," Divnich said in an interview with GamesIndustry. "That’s 11 million consumers who are willing to spend money to consume interactive entertainment. Those are 11 million of the elusive ‘Whales’ we continually hunt in the mobile market."

That comment originated as Divnich was talking about the transition to mobile gaming.

He went on: "By the end of 2017, this will balloon to over 50 million consumers, all willing to spend money to consume quality content. It’s a market that independent developers shouldn’t ignore and one that the console manufacturers must foster to gain independent support."

In addition, Sony is doing a good job building relationships with independent developers, he said.

"Sony’s recent press coverage represents an important change that could make consoles a thriving market place for independent developers. It’s expected that the next generation of consoles will have connectivity rates in excess of 85 percent and Sony has already shown a new direction in terms of developer support that bodes well to create new experiences for this industry. This includes help with funding through programs like Pub Fund, discovery, development, marketing, and PR support, in addition to optimizing the submission process to court independent developers," he said. "We are still awaiting Microsoft’s strategy for the next-generation, but it’s natural to assume that Microsoft will have a similar strategy of bringing new games, business models, and development teams into their ecosystem."

Look for the PlayStation 4 to likely release this holiday season. Will you be one of the predicted 11 million to join the next-gen craze? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.