Michael Pachter, noted video game analyst, has predicted that the ‘true’ next generation of consoles will not arrive until at least 2013, if ever.
“We do not expect a ‘new’ console in 2010 (other than the long-rumored high definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology),” Pachter wrote in an industry newsletter, adding, “We do not expect the ‘next’ generation to begin before 2013, if at all."
He then justified his statement.
"We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalize on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle.
“We therefore think it is likely that the ‘next’ generation will begin after 2013."
Perhaps Pachter has a point. As each generation of consoles emerges, traditional development costs rise by an immense amount (non-traditional development structures include downloadable games). With rising costs, doesn’t it make business sense to capitalize on the massive technological investments that studios have made that are only relevant to this generation of consoles? Still, with the advent of cloud-computing game platforms like On-Live, it might all become irrelevant in the long run anyway.