Industry analysts have stated that they don’t see Call of Duty going the way of the Dodo like fellow Activision stable mate Guitar Hero – that is, so long as the publishing behemoth doesn’t let the quality bar slide.
Guitar Hero has remained a lucrative IP for Activision for the past half a decade or so, though last week the firm dropped the bombshell that it had pulled the plug on the music simulation franchise. As such, 2011 marks the first year that a Guitar Hero title hasn’t been released since its inception in 2005.
Despite the franchise’s demise, however, analysts have said that they don’t think Call of Duty is in line to suffer the same fate. Specifically, outspoken Wedbush Morgan chap Michael Pachter said he feels the curtain came down on Guitar Hero’s gig as it was more of a “fad,” while CoD by comparison continues to go from strength to strength annually on account of its mammoth online community.
"I don’t think they are comparable at all," said Pachter, during a chat with IndustryGamers. "GH is a franchise that people buy once, because the peripherals are great. As it saturated the installed base, the only buyers were people who are new console purchasers, and the ‘fad’ appeared to wear off at the same time.”
"CoD, on the other hand, has a vibrant online community that keeps growing. When a new version comes out, the ‘network effect’ kicks in, and many people buy it because their friends have done so. The risk to the franchise is competition, not people tiring of the gameplay… CoD won’t fade unless Activision opens the door to competition by making a bad game."
Likewise, DFC Intelligence analyst David Cole sees Guitar Hero as a brand that had a limited shelf life due to excessive brand milking, while FPS games like Call of Duty boast long term popularity. He did, however, warn that Activision might want to cool their jets in the future as not to put the series’ quality in jeopardy.
"With GH it seemed that it was very likely to be a fad that would be milked until it dried out. It was somewhat the same issue as extreme sports and hunting games. FPS games are a long proven genre and thus don’t seem to have fallen into that fad issue,” he said.
"However, there is a very real danger of milking a franchise and causing quality to decline, which can result in turning consumers off. With COD I think the danger is trying to maintain the quality of the franchise and making sure they don’t release product just to release product."
Elsewhere, Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets offered: "I think music games were a fad – just like fitness games were at one point, and maybe dance games are today. But after years of franchise growth, I wouldn’t put Call of Duty in the same category.”
"Could Activision mess it up? Sure, but if they focus on maintaining high game quality, fresh story-lines, and online multiplayer, then I don’t see an obvious reason for the franchise to decline."
Finally, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich also chipped in on the matter, noting that the trials and tribulations of the music genre do not apply to the shooter market:
"I don’t believe any lessons learned from the music category applies to the Call of Duty franchise. I trust that Activision knows what they are doing with Call of Duty and I remain unconcerned about the franchise’s future."