EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes Activision’s Call of Duty Elite service could attract as many as four million subscribers in one year.
Speaking to IndustryGamers, Divnich reckons the initiative, which launches alongside Modern Warfare 3 this fall, could drum up 1.5 million subs by the end of 2011.
"In terms of the services potential, our current surveys and market research indicate that Call of Duty: Elite could achieve 10 to 20 per cent penetration among Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 purchasers. This likely translates into about 2 to 4 million subscribers after 12 months and likely 1.5 million subscribers by the end of 2011. We suspect that the subscription price will range in the $4.99 area," commented Divnich.
However, he was keen to point out that the Call of Duty brand faces stiff competition this year in the form of DICE-developer blaster Battlefield 3, which publisher Electronic Arts has said will be gunning for the annual FPS crown.
As such, Divnich said that it’s crucial Modern Warfare 3 packs enough critical clout under its belt to sway punters over to the Activision juggernaut, as the majority of subs will likely stem from review-conscious hardcore gamers.
"It is critical, however, that CoD MW3 achieves critical acclaim as the bulk of subscribers are likely to come from the core gaming community, where review scores can have incredible influence," he said.
"While this wouldn’t have been a factor in prior years, as CoD has faced little competition, the release of Battlefield 3 could prove to be a thorn in CoD’s side. If Battlefield 3 outperforms in reviews by a considerable amount (5 points) the core gaming community could shift their annual FPS purchase over to Battlefield 3."
Modern Warfare 3 is due out on November 8.