BDA: Microsoft is bad at making predictions
- Posted September 2nd, 2007 at 19:26 EDT by
- 5,097 views
- 37 Comments
Frank Simonis, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Assosciation (BDA), believes strongly in the future of Blu-ray and HD content in general.
Simonis is certain exciting things are soon to come and, unlike Bill Gates who stated that HD content on physical formats will fail, he believes the future of Blu-ray as a high definition format looks very strong.
"I think a lot of people make the mistake of thinking that Microsoft is the Holy Grail," Simonis said.
"The idea that no one wants HD is a story that Microsoft likes to spin. Bill Gates last year had a speech at a University in Chicago where he stated that he didn't need the third generation optical media and will go for downloads."
Continuing his discussion, Simonis sarcastically stated how disheveled Microsoft is that when Vista was announced for a 2004 release, it came out three years late.
With everything considered, Simonis made it clear that he believes Microsoft shouldn't be looked upon for any predictions:
"Microsoft is very bad at making predictions and I think that you can only judge that if the consumer truly has a choice in making use of that application. For standard definition the concept is now slowly coming alive. But high definition is six times more information in the video alone. That's not including the HD 7.1 audio," Simonis underscored.
With the strong support of Blu-ray's size and content, Simonis further mentioned that a downloadable only future is absolutely no threat to Blu-ray:
"So to download a movie of 25GB over the internet, I wish the consumer a lot of success today and hopefully the day after you might have all the content in one form. But with Blu-ray you can buy it all in one go and it's top quality at an affordable price."
Blu-ray is currently outpacing its rival HD DVD, which is supported by Microsoft.
Keep checking PSU for more Blu-ray related information.
Source: Tech
Comments
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k_nice_66_11_77 |
k_nice_617- 7:33pm BST - September 2nd, 2007
- 2
MMMM take that The Cleaner, you gonna be ripping 25 to 50 gigs of HD content? better get a petabyte hard drive sheittttt!!!!
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InfernoReaper |
GrimDarkling- 8:05pm BST - September 2nd, 2007
- 4
Ripping a Blu-ray does not cost you 25GBs. You'd be hard pressed to find a Blu-ray movie (just the movie, no extras) that was over 10GBs. There are rips out now for Blu-rays at 4GBs for just the movie. And if you think the internet is too slow for this transfer, you apparently don't know about new technology. Google VDSL or use your own search engine. Speeds up to 100MBps both ways simultaneously. Within the next 5 years we should have 1GBps internet connections. Try to wrap your head around that concept.
I much prefer to have my media in hard copy anyway. Data is too easily lost.
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Twizz |
Twizz9- 8:23pm BST - September 2nd, 2007
- 6
I don't think untill Verizon releases Fios (I think thats the names) more widely, it wont be worth it to download Blue Ray Movies because of DSL/Cable cost, unless what IfernoReaper says is true and they are only 4gb each, wich isent really all that bad. I personally dont like haveing everything on my PC, I like watchings stuff from my PS3. That and my PC Video card kinda sucks, and I preferd to buy and HDTV for my PS3 than upgrade my PC lol I guess if you live in some parts of the US, and most of europe it dose not matter. They have great broadband there. Here its 29.99 for 6mb pers second connection I think. I remember paying twice that for half the speed just 4 or so years ago.
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SlimDan22 |
SlimDan22- 8:42pm BST - September 2nd, 2007
- 8
About Half of all new releases since 2007 are on DL Bluray discs Usually Older movies are on the Single Layer Ones So idk when they are going to offer speeds to download about 25GB minimum Heres a Site Telling You Info About Releases and The Disc Format http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/releasedates_historical.html
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djrussell |
djrussell89- 9:29pm BST - September 2nd, 2007
- 11
InfernoReaper: yeah, but the average joe doesnt want to download s*** all day and wait for downloads to finish.. i want the physical product.. and just because some new technology has mega-fast download rates it doesnt mean every normal person out there will a) have access to it or b) even want it.
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thegame97338 |
G_PIG79- 9:39pm BST - September 2nd, 2007
- 12
I have kids, and they don't want to wait hours to watch there movie for the first time, and neither do I, disc's are physical, and I can take them anywhere...
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Supra2JZGTE
- 9:49pm BST - September 2nd, 2007
- 13
Dont know who will win the war. My friend who is also in IT believes Downloads will take over and win against BD and HD-DVD. But I mean, hay, lets look at it like this. With custom re-authoring (VERY possible in a year or less due to DUal and Qaud core CPUs), you can take everything about the BD(Streams,Menus, etc..) take the video stream and audio stream and BAM! Fit it on a single layer 25GB disc. Screw these studios trying to make us choose the most expensive format!!! Im pissed!
-dad
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k_nice_66_11_77 |
k_nice_617- 10:02pm BST - September 2nd, 2007
- 14
@ inferno reaper, very interesting. You're telling me that sony put 25 gigs on a disc for nothing besides games? Doubt it. And special features and ECT... wouldn't be obese in size I'm assuming....Why does HD content chew the fûCk out my cable box's HD if that's the case? I got you but now I don't see your logic....
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galaxyman14 |
Apollo15- 10:12pm BST - September 2nd, 2007
- 15
He pretty much pointed out exactly what I hate about Microsoft. They try to tell the consumer what to buy. Every corporation wants you to buy their stuff of course, but Microsoft actually tries to tell the consumer what they should do. They say they support HD movie downloads, but how the f*** are people supposed to download movies that are over 9 gigs when their hard-drive only has 13 gigs? Oh wait, I think I already know their response: People have a choice to spend more money to download HD movies.:sarcasm: Oh yeah, you have a choice to spend more money than is reasonable to download HD movies and make your old hard-drive useless, or you have the choice to spend 170 dollars on a format that is currently getting it's a** kicked. Or with the PS3 you could just *gasp* buy the f-ing movies instead of coughing up the cash to "upgrade" your system.
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Gen.Penguin
- 11:23pm BST - September 2nd, 2007
- 17
downloading movies is a pain in the a_$$. no matter how fast your internet is.
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KJD007
- 12:44am BST - September 3rd, 2007
- 18
Funny, funny and funny. If Bill Gates truely believes he doesn't need a third generation optical media like he stated at the University of Chicago, then why does his company (Microsoft) support HD DVD??? Hmm??? Why does the Xbox 360 have a add-on HD DVD drive??? Why why why??? Here is one theory; if HD DVD looses to Blu-ray then the Xbox 360 will clearly loose to the PS3. A next gen console will have to have the support of a HD Drive of some sort, and since the Xbox 360 is not a real next gen console due to is hardware specs and has no built-in HD Drive, if HD DVD looses to Blu-ray then the Xbox 360 will fall to the PS3. It is as simple as this. PS3, it's in the box!
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ramageddon
- 2:48am BST - September 3rd, 2007
- 21
HEAR HEAR! Let's not forget that not all geographical regions have adequate network support - so if Microsoft were to throw all their weight behind downloadable software - they'd be losing out on a large audience in most parts of Asia, South America, and Africa.
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Alpha2
- 3:01am BST - September 3rd, 2007
- 22
A hard product will always be more desireable to the common consumer than pure data. If I blow my money on something I like there to be a tangible result. Even the games I buy over PSN give me a feeling of concern because who knows what might happen t sony's records of my purchases. Hidef also makes it harder for people to bootlegg games. I can download a 9gb game in a day but who wants to waste an entire week to get a single game?
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InfernoReaper |
GrimDarkling- 10:49am BST - September 3rd, 2007
- 25
@ djrussell: I prefer to have the physical product just like you do. I was merely saying it was a misconception that internet speeds won't accomodate larger content or get faster. Also, if you want your movie that bad, all power to you to go buy it. I wouldn't mind waiting a few hours to a day for something to save me gas.
@k_nice_66_11_77: No I'm not saying only 25GBs are used for games. I'm saying with all the features and making-ofs that can be put on there, it takes up more than you'd think. Unless everything but the movie is SD, which would be completely redundant. And HD content "chews the fûCk out" of your HDD would probably be due to the 10-15 minutes of commercials per show rather than just the show. And since your hard drive data can't be defraged or moved around, it eats up more space writing links and other things to allow a movie to work.
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davin_g
- 11:43am BST - September 3rd, 2007
- 26
Whatever!!! First off neither is going to dominate the market. Both will be a niche market. i can't even get digital cable....4mb/s downloads or get my consumers to stop buying VHS. YES VHS!! VHS still outsells dvds for blank media and also i have people buying VHS movies almost more than DVDs. People in america and i am sure all over don't care about either of these options because they don't even know what HD looks like. Not until 2010-2011 when broadcasts are all done in HD will avg joe even see it. The countries infrastructure for cable and internet is NOT capable of downloads for HD content.....i promise you that! At least blu-ray has storage media, gaming, and HD movies going for it. People don't want downloads or even are really ready to purchase off the internet....I know because I have worked all over and I sell it myself. The avg consumer thinks DVDs are as good as it can get and won't buy something they cant touch...I know because I work in that business and I see it everyday. Store fronts aren't going away and even though I love buy.com and amazon.com and free shipping to my house and downloading the avg consumer doesn't have faith in it. sorry but downloads are coming anytime soon. and i ask you reaper...do you pay for your movies you download?????????? because i highly doubt you are paying for them and when you have to (and yes the crack down will come) will you still want to pay and wait for the downloads and lost packets of data that is inevitable and you get glitches in your movies or would you buy a physical media. just a question??
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LittleBigPimp
- 2:33pm BST - September 3rd, 2007
- 28
I keep buying them on these physical formats. And HD-DVD has already lost the battle. A lot of stores have already decided to go Blu-Ray only.
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InfernoReaper |
GrimDarkling- 4:33pm BST - September 3rd, 2007
- 29
Before everyone gets mouthy at me, I buy everything in physical media. I don't trust digital.
@ davin_g: If you had read my comments, you would have plainly seen that in both comments, I said I much prefer physical media over digital. I don't trust data, it gets corrupted too easily like you said. But when you have to drive 10 miles to the closest place to get DVDs and Blu-rays, it seems more sensible to download them with internet connection you already pay for, especially with gas like it is. My truck doesn't get very good gas mileage. You make your average joe seem like some redneck guy that lives in a shack in the woods. Your average joe sounds more like Caveman joe.
And when did I ever say I downloaded movies? You certainly made it sound like I was a pirate. And even if it wasn't against site rules to discuss pirating, I wouldn't say either way. There ARE legitimate sites like Vongo.com that, for a price of a DVD, lets you download as many movies as you want.. (Sorry PSU if that counts as advertising.) You decide what's right and wrong for yourself. I have my own ideas.
The whole point of my earlier comments was to inform other PSU members that the internet speeds are increasing to meet demands and if our formats DID turn to downloading, there would be adequate speeds for the content. The internet isn't even close to its limit.
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k_nice_66_11_77 |
k_nice_617- 7:45pm BST - September 3rd, 2007
- 31
@ inferno reaper, If people do this in any way, They are going to need some of the more mondern computers because the bandwith for streaming HD content is madness, and everyones going to need a proper internet connection which should be around 2GB/s, especially if they want HD quality, not a little above HD Quality. Oh yeah, My dad watches Sports on Comcast which is like on channel 808, which I believe is commercial free, argument not valid.
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InfernoReaper |
GrimDarkling- 10:01pm BST - September 3rd, 2007
- 32
@ k_nice_66_11_77: I'm sorry I didn't know what you dad watches. I shouldn't have spoken in such a general manner. Maybe I'll ask for your channel lineup next time I feel like making general statements. As for the internet, I don't believe I was talking about computers, merely internet connection speeds. Yes, computers will have to make a gigantic leap ahead to accomplish this. Yes, average consumer computers will not able to handle it processing necessary for this. But as more and more people start making high end systems, there will be people who can access HD content. It was the same situation when all the DVD ripping software and piracy hit the fan. Connection speeds will soon allow HD content to be sent across the internet at high speeds. It, however, comes down to the consumer as to whether they should invest in a higher end machine to handle these tasks or not.
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The Cleaner
- 4:34am BST - September 4th, 2007
- 34
Hey “K_nice_66_11_77” ...... First of all, I don't need a Petabyte hard drive. I doubt there will be enough movies released on Bluray or HD to ever fill one (that is 20,000 - 40,000 movies thuck knuckle).
You can buy a Seagate or Hitachi 1TB (1024GB) raw capacity hard drive today from a corner PC shop. I recommend that you put 5 of those in a RAID 5 and create a single Disk Group and present a 3.8TB LUN to your media center. As my nearline store I use a $600 Thecus NAS device and installed 2 x 4Gb/s DP Emulex HBA's which means that I can stream 30 - 60 x 50GB movies across the network to my media centre in about 30 minutes. I can't possibly watch 30 - 60 HD movies per night so that's more than adequate. In reality most of my movies are about 4GB anyway.....
As far as loading my movies onto the NAS, I use a lightweight 36GB SSD or a single Ultrium G4 cartridge that holds 800GB native or 1.6TB compressed and copy from my source. It cost me $98 for a cartridge. The cartridge can write at a throughput of 80-160MB/s about ten times the performance of a Bluray so I'll have it all filled in about 2 hours. It is a little smaller in dimension to that of a Bluray disk so it fits nicely in my pocket so I can carry it into work, the media also can't be scratched as its housed in an ABS case. One Ultrium cart hold the same amount of movies as 16 x 50GB Bluray disks. Its called technology dim wit, and its only one of many storage technologies available today. Which brings me to my real point.....
Do you understand how Netflix operate? Do they deliver using TCP/IP communications of any sort? No.... You don't have to download or stream. Watch Newscorp & Disney over the next few years and you will learn how many ways it can be done. Bluray and HD DVD may not be the primary delivery mechanisms. PayTV trickle feed, Movies On Demand Streaming services, Torrent downloads across next gen IP networks, NetFlix home delivery matched with some sort of online DRM verification, or plain dumping data from your mates PC into a high capacity media center some other way... Whatever... There are many many options available. Most people are not buying HD media today and most people never will... Look at the demand for so called "Low Def" movies to play on phones, PDA's, PSP's, GP2X's, iPods and other stuff buddy - there is more demand right there in one month than a years worth of HD Movie sales combined... This is a seriously fragmented market with no victors
- which leads me to my ultimate point. Lets talk PS3 value being around games instead of Bluray BS. Media formats is a risky affair (google Sony dumps Atrac) and if it doesnt take off it should not hold back the Playstation console. IE: don't focus on Bluray. Otherwise PS3 sales are never going to improve and that means fewer supporting publishers which means fewer games which means I wasted over a grand. Excellent games count and bluray media does not.
I want games for PS3 not movies. I already have those in the terrabytes thanks.
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InfernoReaper |
GrimDarkling- 5:33pm BST - September 4th, 2007
- 35
Wow, Cleaner, and I thought I had a nice setup. And don't get too riled up about k_nice, he's 15. He doesn't know what technology is. Maybe his parents will teach him before he moves out of his parents basement in the next 10-12 years. Don't get grounded too much, k_nice.
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The Cleaner
- 6:12am BST - September 5th, 2007
- 36
Thanks InfernoReaper, I'll come clean - I have about half of that, but all the stuff is available and kind of affordable for home use. Mate three years from now we will all seriously be laughing at todays media centers, networking and storage technologies... 10Gb/s Ethernet - I mean what the heck am I going to do with that sort of bandwidth let alone Infiniband and all the other rising technologies... And @ k_nice_66_11_77: Peace man. I was being a bit of a smart Rss I admit so no problems mate - everyone has their own opinions and thats cool.
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davin_g
- 12:17am BST - September 6th, 2007
- 37
all i am saying is that most of america and europe and many many other companies have no where near the bandwith required to acomplish what you speak of. You are clearly in the minority.....which I would cut off my right arm to be back in the city but the majority of america doesn't even have digital cable. it is simply a fact. not everyone has what you have. i used to and it sucks not having it.
As far as driving...that is fine...your choice. since i can't even buy a blu-ray within 40 miles i have amazon and buy.com ship it for free to me. i can't even remember paying more than 25 dollars except for a top notch new release for a blu-ray. most are 19.99 when you get them pre-ordered or on sale and the prices will keep going down. but rest assured my friend...the world is more backwards and redneck than you think. you live on the cutting edge of technology...most don't. VHS is by FAR the prefered way to record and watch taped tv shows and home videos. DVDs are slowly taking over....HD is a long ways off. I too like living on the cutting edge...sadly though my customers don't....and their money doesn't lie...I know what I sell and VHS still sells more blank tapes than DVD-Rs in every store in my region. My buyers keep telling me that we need to cut out our VHS section and I laugh and show him the numbers....he shakes his head and says he can't understand...and I have to explain it to him. Most people don't live in our HD world...they only see in SD and will for quite some time.
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